Key takeaways:
XRP is on course to finish August in losses, raising worries about a potential bearish continuation in September.
Losing $2.80 support could accelerate XRP selling, with technicals warning about a 25% drop ahead.
XRP ( XRP ) has dropped more than 22.30% in the past month after peaking near $3.66, putting August on track for a losing close.
Will the slump extend into September? Let’s examine.
Onchain data flags XRP price breakdown risk
XRP faces a critical test near $2.80 in September, according to Glassnode’s cost basis heatmap.
The largest cluster of supply sits between $2.81 and $2.82, where nearly 1.71 billion XRP were acquired. As of Friday, XRP was trading for around 2.88, just above the supply zone.
A drop below the given price range could trigger another wave of profit-taking as holders see their gains vanish.
The next big support in September should then be at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement around $1.73, a level that acted as a firm floor in early 2025.
XRP MACD fractal hints at possible 25% decline
XRP price technical indicators also warn of potential downside risk.
On the weekly chart, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) , which measures shifts in trend strength, is on track to print a bearish crossover in September.
When MACD’s faster-moving blue line falls below the slower orange line, it signals weakening momentum, often a prelude to price pullbacks.
In past XRP cycles, similar crosses have marked the start of 50%–60% retracements.
For instance, in May 2021, September 2021, and March 2025, XRP’s weekly MACD crossed bearish just after the price peaked.
All instances triggered declines that first tested the 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; the red wave).
XRP can slide toward the 50-week EMA at around $2.17, down about 25%, in September if the MACD fractal repeats.
The same downside target has popped up in multiple XRP analyses in the past, and further aligns with a key 0.618 Fibonacci retracement support line, as shown in the chart below.
A decisive drop below the 50-week EMA and $1.73 Fib line afterward would confirm a bear market, in which XRP price could go as low as its 200-week EMA (the blue wave) at around $1.19.
This pattern played out after the MACD bearish cross in September 2021.
At $1.19, XRP/USD would be trading near the average acquisition cost of current holders, according to Glassnode . While more than 90% of XRP holders remain in profit , this raises the odds of profit-taking if prices fall further.
The bulls must hold above the 50-week EMA to avoid this bearish scenario. Luckily, since July 2024, XRP has found support at the EMA before regaining momentum and climbing to new multiyear highs.
Related: XRP ‘distribution’ phase doesn’t change $20 price target: Analyst
Multiple analysts suggest a similar outcome could play out this time, predicting that this top-three cryptocurrency will reach at least $4 in the coming months.
