Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Battle at 105K: A Tug-of-War Between Bulls and Macroeconomic Uncertainty

Bitcoin's price trajectory has sparked intense debate among traders and analysts as it hovers near the critical $105,000 level. Recent price action shows a mixed picture, with bulls attempting to maintain control above this threshold while bears press for a pullback toward $90,000. According to on-chain data from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode, the number of addresses holding more than $100,000 in Bitcoin has increased by 12% over the past two weeks, suggesting growing accumulation among long-term holders [1]. This trend could indicate a potential bottoming process, as institutional and retail investors alike seek to capitalize on what they view as a favorable entry point.

However, the market remains underpinned by uncertainty as macroeconomic indicators continue to sway sentiment. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy stance, particularly regarding interest rates and inflation expectations, has a direct bearing on risk assets like Bitcoin. Analysts at Arcane Asset Management note that if the Fed signals a more hawkish stance in the coming weeks, it could trigger increased volatility and a short-term correction [2]. This scenario plays into the bearish narrative, which argues that the $105,000 level is not a strong enough support to prevent a retest of $90,000.

Technical analysis also provides mixed signals. Bitcoin's 20-day relative strength index (RSI) has shown signs of divergence, indicating potential exhaustion in the current upward move [3]. On the other hand, the price remains above its 200-day moving average, a key indicator of a bullish trend. Some traders are watching the $110,000 level as a potential trigger for a more aggressive rally, especially if the market manages to break through the current range and attract new speculative capital [4].

Market sentiment has been further complicated by the ongoing regulatory developments across major jurisdictions. In China Hong Kong, the government has taken a cautious but not entirely prohibitive stance toward digital assets, with the Monetary Authority of China Hong Kong issuing updated guidelines for crypto firms [5]. These developments add to the broader uncertainty, particularly as global regulators continue to grapple with the evolving nature of the crypto market. A regulatory crackdown or a shift in policy could act as a catalyst for a sharp sell-off or, conversely, a rally in speculative trading activity.

In the broader market context, Bitcoin's performance is closely tied to the broader equity markets and investor risk appetite. As major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq show signs of stabilization, Bitcoin is also beginning to reflect this trend. However, the correlation between equities and crypto is not always linear, and a divergence could emerge if macroeconomic conditions shift unexpectedly. This dynamic underscores the importance of closely monitoring not just price action, but also broader macroeconomic indicators and sentiment shifts.

Source:

[1] Glassnode - On-Chain Analysis of Bitcoin Address Activity

[2] Arcane Asset Management - Macroeconomic Implications for Bitcoin

[3] CoinMarketCap - Technical Indicators for Bitcoin

[4] TradingView - Bitcoin Price Analysis and Chart Data

[5] Monetary Authority of China Hong Kong - Crypto Regulatory Update