Goldman Sees Euro Rising as SNB Dovishness Deepens Divide

Goldman Sachs has positioned itself as a key player in the evolving EUR/CHF currency pair landscape, with analysts at the firm adopting a strategic stance that reflects the complex interplay between European and Swiss monetary policy. According to recent insights, the firm's approach to EUR/CHF is grounded in its assessment of divergent central bank strategies, particularly between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB).

One of the central drivers of Goldman Sachs’ EUR/CHF strategy is the SNB’s continued dovish positioning. The SNB has maintained a zero interest rate policy, having cut rates to 0.0% in June 2025, a move consistent with its long-standing strategy to weaken the Swiss franc and support the economy amid export-driven growth [1]. This contrasts sharply with the ECB’s recent trajectory of rate cuts, which, while easing monetary conditions in the eurozone, have not yet reached the levels of accommodation seen in Switzerland. As a result, the EUR/CHF pair has experienced upward pressure, with the euro strengthening against the Swiss franc. Goldman Sachs views this as a continuation of a trend, with the firm forecasting further gains for the euro against the franc, supported by the ECB’s expected policy normalization [2].

The firm’s EUR/CHF stance is also influenced by macroeconomic divergences between the two regions. The eurozone has shown signs of inflationary moderation, with recent data indicating a softening in price growth, which aligns with the ECB’s policy easing. Meanwhile, Switzerland has seen limited inflationary pressures, reducing the urgency for the SNB to adopt a more neutral stance [3]. This divergence in economic fundamentals has reinforced the expectation of a continued appreciation in the euro against the Swiss franc. Goldman Sachs’ analysts emphasize that as long as the ECB continues to cut rates while the SNB remains accommodative, the EUR/CHF pair will likely remain in an uptrend.

In addition to monetary policy, Goldman Sachs highlights the role of external factors, including global economic conditions and the U.S. dollar’s performance. The firm notes that the dollar’s recent volatility, driven by uncertainty around the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy path and Trump’s trade agenda, has indirectly influenced EUR/CHF dynamics. A weaker dollar has supported risk-on sentiment, benefiting the euro while leaving the Swiss franc, often seen as a safe-haven asset, relatively underperforming [4]. Analysts at Goldman Sachs expect this trend to persist in the near term, particularly as global growth concerns and geopolitical risks continue to weigh on market sentiment.

The firm’s strategic positioning also incorporates technical analysis of the EUR/CHF pair. Historical trends show that the pair has been in a prolonged uptrend, with key support and resistance levels reinforcing the likelihood of further euro strength. Goldman Sachs points to critical levels in the 1.05 to 1.08 range as pivotal for the pair, with a break above 1.08 signaling a potential acceleration in the euro’s gains [5]. The technical outlook, combined with the firm’s macroeconomic assessment, supports a bullish stance on EUR/CHF.

Goldman Sachs’ EUR/CHF strategy reflects a combination of monetary policy divergences, macroeconomic trends, and technical indicators. The firm’s analysis underscores the SNB’s accommodative stance as a key differentiator from the ECB, while external factors like U.S. dollar volatility and global risk appetite play a reinforcing role. As the ECB continues its easing cycle and the SNB remains dovish, the EUR/CHF pair is expected to benefit, with further gains likely in the near term.

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