Outlook for Next Week: US August PPI and CPI Data Incoming, Is a Rate Cut Already a Foregone Conclusion?

BlockBeats News, September 6 — This week, the financial markets have been turbulent. Due to the unexpectedly weak U.S. non-farm payroll data, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have intensified. Although the market anticipates further rate cuts from the Fed, the U.S. dollar has surprisingly remained strong, even after the disappointing non-farm payroll data, with no significant decline.

Several Federal Reserve watchers have stated that this non-farm payroll data has locked in a rate cut for this month. Investors share the same view, pushing the probability of a rate cut at this month's meeting to 99%.

Monday 23:00 (UTC+8), U.S. August New York Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations;

Tuesday 22:00 (UTC+8), U.S. 2025 Non-Farm Payroll Benchmark Revision Preliminary Value;

Wednesday 20:30 (UTC+8), U.S. August PPI Data;

Wednesday 22:00 (UTC+8), U.S. July Wholesale Sales MoM;

Thursday 20:30 (UTC+8), U.S. August CPI Data, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending September 6;

Friday 22:00 (UTC+8), U.S. September 1-Year Inflation Rate Preliminary Estimate, September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Preliminary Value.

If the August PPI once again shows stronger-than-expected growth, investors may scale back some of their more dovish expectations for Fed rate cuts. However, for now, the impact of tariffs on goods prices appears to be moderate, and a potentially bigger headache for the Fed is the recent rebound in service sector inflation. According to the Cleveland Fed's real-time forecasting model, the annual CPI rate for August is expected to edge up by 0.1 percentage points to 2.8%, while the core CPI annual rate may remain unchanged at 3.1%.