BTC Market Pulse: Week 38

Overview

In the spot market, RSI surged into overbought territory, while CVD weakened and volumes held flat, reflecting strong momentum but limited conviction as sellers pressed into strength.

The futures market showed elevated participation, with open interest rising and perpetual CVD spiking on aggressive buy-side flows. Yet, softer funding highlighted reduced long demand, suggesting leverage remains active but sentiment is shifting toward caution.

In the options market, open interest grew, but volatility spreads fell below range and skew declined sharply, pointing to reduced hedging and a more complacent tone. Traders appear less defensive, though this raises the risk of surprise if volatility re-emerges.

Flows into US spot ETFs strengthened significantly, with net inflows far above range and trade volumes steady, signaling robust institutional demand. ETF MVRV climbed, keeping holders in profit, reinforcing cautious optimism from TradFi investors.

On-chain fundamentals were mixed, with addresses slipping toward cycle lows, but transfer volume increasing, suggesting renewed capital flows despite quieter user activity. Fees dipped, underscoring softer block space demand and subdued speculative pressure.

Capital flows signaled balance, with realized cap change steady, STH/LTH ratio rising slightly, and hot capital share edging higher, showing moderate speculative presence but a stable underlying structure.
Profitability metrics improved, with supply in profit, NUPL, and realized P/L all rising. This highlights broad investor profitability and stronger sentiment, though elevated profit realization raises the risk of demand exhaustion.

In sum, the market benefited from macro-driven momentum, with ETF inflows and futures accumulation supporting the recovery. Yet, weakening spot flows, softer funding, and rising profit-taking point to emerging sell pressure. Sentiment is improving, but fragility remains, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable if demand fails to sustain.

Off-Chain Indicators

On-Chain Indicators

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