September Rate Decision: 25 Basis Point Rate Cut Almost Certain, Three Key Factors May Ignite the Market

BlockBeats News, on September 17, the Federal Reserve will deliver a "trilogy" of messages to investors at the upcoming interest rate meeting: To what extent are officials readjusting their outlook to reflect a weakening job market? How divided is the Federal Reserve becoming? Has the arrival of Governor Milan brought partisan tendencies to the Fed?

Although the Federal Reserve wants to avoid political disputes, it is still being steadily drawn into Washington's polarized dialogue. Republicans accuse Biden administration appointees of pushing the Fed into inappropriate areas such as climate change and racial equality, and of using rate cuts to win votes during the 2024 presidential campaign. Democrats, on the other hand, accuse President Trump of pressuring the Fed, including attempts to fire Governor Cook, who was appointed by former President Biden, moves to force Fed Chair Powell to step down, and the placement of Milan into the Fed.

The magnitude and pace of rate cuts remain contentious issues. Analysts say this week's meeting may see an unusually high number of dissents, with those concerned about inflation likely to support not cutting rates, while Milan and two other Trump appointees may support a larger 50 basis point cut. Since this summer, the latter have believed that inflation risks have eased and the job market is weakening. Fed Governor Waller and Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman voted against at the July 29-30 meeting, saying rates should have been cut then, and subsequent job market reports have further heightened their employment concerns. Both officials are on a list of 11 potential candidates to succeed Powell next year.

The market is currently pricing in that the Fed will continue with 25 basis point rate cuts at the October and December meetings, while the pace for next year is less certain. JPMorgan Chief U.S. Economist Michael Feroli said the median forecast will reflect three 25 basis point rate cuts this year, rather than the two predicted in June. But he also noted that concerns about inflation will not disappear, and "when it comes to dissenting votes, doves have less ability to shape the majority-approved statement message."