Perp DEX Battle: Veteran Hyperliquid Faces 1 Billion Unlock, New Forces Compete for Users with Incentives

Author: Nancy, PANews

Original Title: Perp DEX New and Old Compete: Hyperliquid Faces Billions in Unlocking Pressure, New Platforms Attract Traffic with Incentives

On September 22, at a side event of the KBW 2025 summit in South Korea, a special "esports exhibition match" took place, where contract traders showcased live 10-minute high-leverage bets on decentralized contract platforms. New platforms such as Lighter, edgeX, and GRVT competed on the same stage. On September 23, the founder of Hyperliquid appeared at the KBW venue. Previously, he had rarely made public appearances, and many Hype fans surrounded him.

Currently, the Perp DEX track is in fierce competition.

Industry leader Hyperliquid is facing the potential negative impact of a massive token unlock, while new competitors such as Aster, Lighter, and edgeX are quickly attracting users through incentive mechanisms and wealth creation effects, reshaping the market landscape. Amidst the interplay of technology, capital, and attention, the growth potential of this sector is being further unlocked.

Billions in Selling Pressure Incoming, Supply Reduction Proposal Sparks Community Debate

Hyperliquid's rise is not only due to its efficient on-chain trading experience and low-cost advantages, but also its early strategy of leveraging price performance to attract users and capital. This approach has allowed Hyperliquid to dominate the Perps DEX track for a long time, and to lead significantly in on-chain trading volume and user stickiness, leaving competitors far behind.

However, the imminent massive token unlock has already raised market concerns. Over a month ago, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes publicly expressed bullishness on HYPE, claiming the token could achieve 126x growth and that annualized revenue could reach $25.8 billion by 2028, while Hyperliquid's revenue at the time was expected to be $5.1 billion. However, on September 22, Hayes chose to cash out his entire position, citing the major unlocking pressure HYPE was about to face. Nevertheless, he still insisted that the 126x opportunity exists, as 2028 is still far away.

In fact, according to Tokenomist data tracking, starting from November 29, 238 million Hype tokens from core contributors will be linearly unlocked over the next 24 months, with the current unlocked value reaching $10.8 billion, and a potential monthly selling pressure of about $450 million. However, based on the HYPE buyback scale of about $110 million in August, this is far from enough to cover the potential selling pressure.

Maelstrom, the Hayes family office fund, pointed out that this is Hyperliquid's "first real test," with monthly releases posing a significant risk to HYPE price stability. "Imagine you are a Hyperliquid developer. After years of hard work, you are about to receive a life-changing amount of tokens, and with just one click, you can cash out."

The fund also noted that even the DAT (crypto treasury company) strategy is far from matching the scale of future HYPE token unlocks. For example, Nasdaq-listed biotech company Sonnet BioTherapeutics will use its $305 million in cash holdings to acquire more HYPE tokens.

In response to market concerns, DBA co-founder Jon Charbonneau and Flashbots Head of Strategy Hasu proposed reducing the total HYPE supply by 45%. The proposal points out that Hyperliquid currently holds a large number of authorized but non-circulating tokens, held by the Aid Fund (AF, about 31 million HYPE) and Future Emissions and Community Rewards (FECR, about 4.21 million HYPE). The suggestion is to change Hyperliquid's economic model, including revoking all unminted HYPE authorizations currently allocated to FECR, burning all HYPE currently held and subsequently obtained by the Aid Fund (AF), and removing the maximum supply cap of 1 billion HYPE, thereby optimizing the protocol's financial structure without affecting the rights of existing holders or the protocol's funding support capability.

It is reported that the fund managed by DBA and the two proposers all hold significant HYPE positions, and if the proposal goes to a formal governance vote, the relevant parties plan to vote in favor. Currently, the proposal has sparked widespread discussion and attention in the community.

The Market Enters an Accelerated Differentiation Phase, Incentives Drive Short-term Traffic Boom

In recent days, Aster has gathered users and attention to more emerging platforms through its wealth creation effect. As the Perp DEX battle reignites, users flock in for airdrops, and platforms are coming up with various strategies to compete for liquidity.

Currently, the Perp DEX market is highly concentrated but differentiation is accelerating, with the growth rate of the leading platforms showing signs of slowing, while emerging platforms are rising rapidly due to incentive expectations.

According to Dune data, as of September 23, in the Top 10 perpetual contract markets, Hyperliquid ranks first with a 38.1% market share; followed by Lighter (16.8%), Aster (14.9%), and edgeX (12.3%). Looking further, Dune data shows that Hyperliquid's market share has dropped from 49.3% 90 days ago to 38%, indicating a slight downward trend in the short term. In contrast, emerging platforms are showing significant growth. For example, Paradex's trading volume in the past 7 days surged by 235.8% week-on-week; Aster grew by 146% in the past 7 days; Lighter grew by about 166.7% in the past 90 days; edgeX's trading volume grew by as much as 544.2% in the past 90 days. This indicates that recent market growth has been mostly captured by new platforms.

In terms of daily trading volume, PerpetualPulse data shows that in the past 24 hours, the total trading volume of mainstream Perp DEXs was about $42.9 billion, with Hyperliquid contributing $15.2 billion, Aster, Lighter, and edgeX contributing $8.6 billion, $6.3 billion, and $5.9 billion respectively. These four platforms together account for as much as 84.1%, further confirming that market concentration remains high, but the pace of differentiation is accelerating.

Trading volume alone is not enough to fully reflect the real market situation. The Open Interest/Volume ratio (OI/Volume) is considered a better measure of user activity and market health. According to data compiled by Dragonfly Managing Partner Haseeb Qureshi (as of September 22), a high ratio (>100%) means the platform has a large number of real user positions and active leverage usage, indicating a healthy market, such as Hyperliquid at 287% and Jupiter at 395%; a medium-low ratio (10–65%) suggests that most trades are short-term or arbitrage, with limited real user activity, such as Lighter and Orderly both at 29%; an extremely low ratio (<20%) implies wash trading or incentive-driven activity, lacking long-term retention, such as Aster at 12% and Paradex at 13%.

In fact, the recent surge in trading volume and open interest on these platforms is indeed highly related to their incentive mechanisms and market expectations. For example, Aster's short-term trading volume soared due to the wealth creation effect and the second phase airdrop; Lighter, edgeX, etc., saw users intensively farming points due to expectations of token launches in Q4.

However, the overall market size of Perp DEX is entering a new stage. According to DeFillama data, as of September 23, the daily trading volume of Perp DEX has exceeded $43.21 billion, up about 530.7% since the beginning of the year.

Overall, the core of current Perp DEX competition is a battle for attention and incentives. In the short term, airdrops and token launch expectations may continue to dominate the fight for traffic, driving periodic explosive trading and user migration. But the real key is whether platforms can convert this short-term influx of traffic into real retention and long-term trading activity.