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Adobe forecasts that AI-powered online shopping will surge by 520% in the 2025 U.S. holiday season

Adobe forecasts that AI-powered online shopping will surge by 520% in the 2025 U.S. holiday season

Bitget-RWA2025/10/06 19:03
By:Bitget-RWA

A recent report from Adobe Analytics, the e-commerce division of Adobe, projects that online sales during the U.S. holiday shopping season will reach $253.4 billion this year, marking a 5.3% increase compared to last year.

To generate these forecasts, Adobe Analytics examines data from over one trillion visits to U.S. retail websites, covering 100 million products across 18 different categories. Their analytics tools are utilized by most of the top 100 online retailers in the U.S., providing them with comprehensive insight into digital shopping patterns and consumer habits.

According to the company’s outlook, Cyber Monday will once again be the top shopping day of the year, with sales expected to climb 6.3% year-over-year to $14.2 billion. Black Friday is also set for notable growth, rising 8.3% to $11.7 billion. On Thanksgiving Day, online shoppers in the U.S. are anticipated to spend $6.4 billion, a 4.9% increase, as holiday deals begin earlier than ever.

This season’s sales surge will be fueled by shoppers seeking discounts, with average markdowns predicted to be around 28% off regular prices. Additional factors contributing to the rise in online shopping include increased purchases via mobile devices, the adoption of AI-driven shopping tools, and the popularity of buy now, pay later options.

Adobe also highlights a significant surge in AI-powered shopping, forecasting a 520% year-over-year jump in AI-related traffic, especially in the ten days leading up to Thanksgiving. This comes after a dramatic 1,300% spike in AI traffic to U.S. retail sites observed in 2024.

Based on a survey of 5,000 U.S. shoppers, Adobe anticipates that most consumers will turn to AI for pre-purchase research, with 53% indicating they might use AI tools for this reason. The survey also revealed that 40% would use AI for personalized suggestions, 36% for finding deals, and 30% for gift ideas. AI is expected to be most widely used in categories such as toys, electronics, jewelry, and personal care products.

Another notable trend this year is the continued dominance of mobile devices in online shopping, projected to account for a record 56.1% of all online sales. Last year, mobile made up 54.5% of transactions during this period, up from 51.1% in 2023. The point at which mobile growth will plateau remains uncertain, especially as larger smartphones make online shopping even more convenient.

Looking ahead to the 2025 holiday season, buy now, pay later (BNPL) services are expected to drive $20.2 billion in online spending, an 11% increase from the previous year and approximately $2 billion more than in 2024. Cyber Monday is also projected to set a new record for BNPL, with spending in this category reaching $1.04 billion, up 5% year-over-year.

Social media is also set to play a larger role in driving online purchases this year, with revenue from social media ads expected to rise by 51% year-over-year, a significant jump from the 5% growth seen in 2024.

The leading categories for holiday spending are expected to be electronics ($57.5 billion, up 4% from last year), apparel ($47.6 billion, a 4.4% increase), and furniture ($31.1 billion, up 6.5%).

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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