HBAR Nears 3-Month Breakout — But Liquidity Outflows Could Spoil It

HBAR’s recent rally has placed the altcoin within striking distance of breaking out from a critical three-month pattern. Despite the market’s bullish momentum, investor behavior may hinder its progress. 

While the broader crypto market shows renewed optimism, HBAR holders appear hesitant, creating a disconnect between sentiment and price action.

Hedera Investors Are Losing Confidence

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for HBAR is climbing steadily, reentering the bullish zone above the neutral 50.0 mark. This shift signals renewed buying interest and improving technical strength. As market-wide sentiment turns positive, indicators suggest that HBAR could soon regain upward momentum if sustained demand persists.

The improving macro environment is also aiding HBAR’s short-term outlook. With Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies posting fresh gains, overall market conditions have strengthened considerably.

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HBAR RSI. Source:  TradingView

However, not all signs point to an easy rally. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), a key measure of capital inflow and outflow, recently dipped below the zero line, marking a monthly low. This decline reveals that investors are withdrawing liquidity from HBAR, signaling uncertainty around its ability to sustain a breakout.

The weakening CMF highlights an imbalance between growing market optimism and cautious investor participation. While bullish sentiment dominates much of the crypto market, HBAR’s holders remain wary of potential short-term reversals.

HBAR CMF. Source:  TradingView

HBAR Price May Not Breakout

HBAR is trading at $0.224, sitting just below the crucial $0.230 resistance level — the breakout point from its descending wedge pattern that has persisted for three months. A decisive move above this level could trigger renewed bullish momentum.

Historically, HBAR has struggled to break free from this setup, and a failed attempt could push prices lower. If rejection occurs, the token might slip toward $0.219 or $0.213, with further downside potential to $0.205.

HBAR Price Analysis. Source:  TradingView

Conversely, if broader market strength outweighs investor skepticism, HBAR price could breach $0.230 and confirm a breakout. This move could propel the price toward $0.242, invalidating the bearish outlook and marking the start of a new bullish phase.