POLY may become the biggest rug pull in crypto history

When Bloomberg described Shayne Coplan as the youngest "self-made billionaire," the founder of Polymarket did not celebrate publicly, but instead posted a symbolic message on X (formerly Twitter):

"$BTC

$ETH

$BNB

$SOL

$POLY (?)"

Listing POLY alongside mainstream coins is a clear signal to the market: POLY is the next token project worth watching.

The "Triple Jump" of Polymarket's Valuation

Before posting the tweet that sparked market speculation, Coplan also disclosed two previously unannounced funding rounds:

- In 2025, Polymarket completed a $150 million funding round led by Founders Fund, with a post-money valuation of $1.2 billion

- In 2024, an early-stage funding round was completed, though the specific amount was not disclosed

This series of funding records outlines Polymarket's clear path of capital advancement: from early-stage funding to breaking the billion-dollar valuation mark, and now to securing a massive investment commitment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).

The most eye-catching development is the entry of ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange. According to the announcement, ICE has committed to invest up to $2 billion in Polymarket, which would push its pre-money valuation to around $8 billion and post-money valuation to about $9 billion.

More importantly, ICE will also become the global distributor of Polymarket's event-driven data. With its resources, distribution channels, and institutional user network, ICE is expected to bring the relatively niche field of prediction markets into the mainstream financial stage.

However, it should be noted that this "up to $2 billion" commitment does not mean a one-time payout; it may be disbursed in phases or come with conditions. Details such as valuation terms, dilution obligations, and investor return order have not been fully disclosed.

With ICE's investment revealed, Bloomberg included Coplan in its list of "youngest self-made billionaires." Reportedly, Polymarket has processed over $1.81 billion in cumulative trading volume and has about 1.3 million unique users, which forms the basis for market speculation about Coplan's net worth.

However, turning equity value into liquid wealth requires considering multiple variables such as equity dilution, lock-up periods, tax burdens, and exit channels. Even if Coplan holds a 20% stake, when the future valuation reaches $10 billion, his corresponding nominal equity value could be around $2 billion. Such "youngest billionaire" titles are common in the crypto industry and are part of brand storytelling—they attract attention and help the project accumulate influence.

POLY: How Big Could It Get?

This is not the first time Polymarket has "hinted" at moves regarding its token path.

After the 2024 US election, its official account once posted the phrase "we predict future drops," which was seen by outsiders as an airdrop hint. In addition, in September 2025, Polymarket's parent company Blockratize mentioned "other warrants" in its SEC filings, a strategy similar to what many projects use in the preparatory phase before token issuance.

Based on its business model, we can speculate on the potential roles of POLY: governance token, fee discounts, staking mechanisms, ecosystem incentives, data distribution rights, and more. If designed well, these functions can turn the token from a "speculation tool" into an ecosystem driver.

Assuming that in the future the POLY platform's annual revenue could reach $500 million, and applying a 20–30x valuation multiple, the token's valuation could be between $10 billion and $15 billion. If the initial circulating supply accounts for 10% of the total, then the circulating market cap could be $1–1.5 billion. If the airdrop accounts for 20–30% of the circulating supply, then the airdrop size could theoretically be in the hundreds of millions of dollars.

Additionally, the simultaneous release of ICE's major investment and the token topic has convinced the community that the project has the financial and resource backing it needs.

Some KOLs believe that if a POLY airdrop is launched, its scale could be the largest ever.

However, a large user base and strong capital backing are not enough to guarantee the successful execution of a "historic" airdrop. The real test lies in a series of execution details: whether the distribution plan is fair, whether the unlocking schedule is reasonable, whether Sybil attacks can be effectively prevented, whether market liquidity is sufficient, and whether trading depth can support large-scale sell-offs. If the release mechanism is poorly designed, even the largest airdrop could end up being short-lived.

Therefore, a more reasonable speculation is that if POLY implements an airdrop, it will likely adopt a composite mechanism—combining phased releases, capped lock-ups, contribution-based scoring systems, and binding with market-making or staking activities, rather than a simple one-time distribution.

Some Suggestions

For investors, while POLY is still in the expectation stage, it is important to remain clear-headed.

It is recommended to focus on a few key aspects: once the project releases its whitepaper, pay special attention to the tokenomics, especially the unlocking mechanism and staking rules, as these will be crucial for assessing its fundamental value.

In terms of participation strategy, focus on genuine participation rather than wash trading. Any future airdrop or incentive is more likely to favor real trading users, market makers, and ecosystem contributors. Also, be sure to keep records of your on-chain transactions and prediction activities on Polymarket, as these will be important evidence for claiming future rights.

Risk control should not be ignored. Even if you receive an airdrop, it is advisable to act in batches to avoid unnecessary market volatility. Pay close attention to global regulatory developments—prediction markets may face multiple regulatory risks such as securities or gambling in different jurisdictions. This article is only speculation based on public information; the true value will only become clear when the whitepaper is released and the token begins to circulate.