Stellar (XLM) Fails Bullish Breakout, Eyes Deeper Drop Amid Weak Social Buzz

At first glance, the Stellar (XLM) price looks fairly stable. It’s up nearly 24% over the past three months and has managed to hold flat in recent weeks.

However, a closer look at both technical and on-chain metrics shows the broader structure is still fragile. The bullish flag breakout failed, momentum signals are weakening, and social activity remains muted, all pointing toward a possible continuation of the broader downtrend.

Social Buzz Fades as Buyer Control Weakens

Over the past three months, Stellar’s social dominance, which measures how often XLM is mentioned in crypto discussions, has fallen steeply from its July peak. On July 13, it reached 1.72%, but by October 7, it had dropped to just 0.16%, the second-lowest level in three months despite the ETF buzz.

🌟 $XLM Among 12 Tokens Set for Fast-Track ETF Approval! 🌟Big news for Stellar! According to Galaxy Digital, only 12 out of the top 100 tokens may qualify for the SEC’s upcoming fast-track ETF approval plan — and $XLM is on that exclusive list.📌 Why it matters: ✅ 91… pic.twitter.com/IqiKuhw8hF

— Scopuly – Stellar Wallet September 2, 2025

While social dominance has since bounced to 0.36%, that’s still far below its previous highs, and the slope continues to form lower highs, showing that Stellar remains out of focus among traders.

Stellar’s Social Dominance:

The muted chatter aligns closely with Wyckoff volume analysis trends, which track buyer and seller control shifts.

The brief rise in social activity from 0.16% to 0.36% coincided with the reappearance of blue “buyer control” bars, which show short bursts of renewed buying. But those bars have already started thinning again.

If they flip back to yellow or red (seller control), as in mid-August and late September, XLM could face another drop similar to the 12% to 20% corrections that followed those periods.

Stellar Price Fractal:

This combined decline in social traction and buying pressure suggests the market’s interest in Stellar remains soft, even during minor rebounds.

Failed Stellar Price Pattern and Hidden Divergence Point to Continuation

On the technical side, the Stellar (XLM) price has invalidated its bullish flag formation, breaking below the support trendline instead of confirming an uptrend with a breakout. This failure signals buyers couldn’t maintain control long enough to push higher.

In addition, the daily RSI has formed a hidden bearish divergence — a pattern in which the price makes lower highs but the RSI makes higher highs, usually confirming that the existing downtrend remains intact.

Stellar Price Analysis:

That downtrend, not explicitly mentioned on price screeners, began in mid-July, when XLM fell from $0.52 to $0.34, a drop of roughly 35%, and it hasn’t been convincingly broken since.

If Stellar falls below $0.37, the next key support lies at $0.34, which aligns with the late September low. A clean drop under that could extend the decline further. However, reclaiming $0.39 and then $0.41 would invalidate this bearish thesis, showing renewed buyer strength.