Bitcoin Updates Today: Conflicting Indicators for Bitcoin: Surge Ahead or Imminent Pullback as Investors Await Direction?

Bitcoin has slipped below $110,000, reigniting concerns that it could tumble toward the psychologically significant $100,000 mark after closing a notable CME futures gap. After reaching a four-month peak of $126,000 in early October, the cryptocurrency is now trading around $105,600. Technical experts and blockchain data point to two possible scenarios: either a surge toward $130,000 or a steep downturn.

The most recent CME gap, which appeared between $109,680 and $111,310, has caught traders’ eyes as they notice similarities to a bullish trend from 2024. Back then,

filled a comparable gap at $68,785 before rallying to $108,000 over the following two months. Analysts from RektCapital have identified a “bullish divergence” on the daily charts, hinting at a possible climb to $130,000 before the year ends. Still, the market’s footing is shaky. According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s funding rate on Binance has turned negative—a pattern that has often preceded market bottoms—while on-chain outflows suggest quiet accumulation amid widespread anxiety.

Broader economic conditions further complicate the outlook. The CME’s FedWatch tool now puts the odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut in November at 96.7%, which could benefit risk assets like Bitcoin. However, ongoing U.S.-China trade disputes and the threat of a prolonged government shutdown could weigh on investor confidence. Farzam Ehsani, CEO of VALR, pointed out the increasing correlation between gold and Bitcoin as safe-haven investments. “More investors are treating both as protection against fiscal instability,” he observed, highlighting gold’s recent 28% rally compared to Bitcoin’s 4.4% drop.

Technical signals are sending mixed messages. Bitcoin’s monthly Bollinger Bands have widened to unprecedented levels, a move that has historically preceded price increases. On the other hand, the RSI hovering near 44 and weak buying interest at $113,500 point to near-term indecision. The 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $113,253 is a key level to watch; closing above it could reignite bullish momentum, while falling below $110,000 may open the door to testing the $104,582 support.

Investor sentiment is sharply split. The Binance Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 39, indicating rising caution, while the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped to a multi-year low of 10—a level last seen during the FTX crisis. At the same time, Bitcoin’s exchange reserves have decreased to 2.3 million

, the lowest in six years, which could signal less selling pressure and the potential for a supply-driven rally.

A notable divergence has also appeared between Bitcoin’s price and trading activity. Despite prices staying close to all-time highs, spot trading volume is 42% lower than 2024 levels, and only a quarter of Bitcoin’s supply is considered liquid. Dan from CryptoQuant described this as a “cooling-off” period, lacking the speculative excitement of previous cycles. “Patience is essential,” he advised, suggesting that macroeconomic events like rate cuts could spark renewed interest.

The future direction will depend on both institutional and retail behavior. Last week, ETF outflows totaled $902.5 million, disrupting previous inflow patterns, while major holders seem to be accumulating. However, excessive leverage at $105,000 and a dense liquidation zone near $117,694 could trigger a wave of selling if prices fall further.