Bitcoin rises 0.07% as ETF investments and institutional purchases support price rebound

On October 26, 2025,

(BTC) experienced a 0.07% increase over the past 24 hours, climbing to $111,693.77. This marks a slight yet notable recovery following a month marked by price swings. Over the last week, advanced 3.16%, but it is still 2.04% lower compared to the previous month. The broader upward momentum remains intact, with the cryptocurrency posting a 19.39% gain since the start of the year. The total market capitalization for digital assets has reached $3.84 trillion, with Bitcoin accounting for 58.03% of the sector’s value.

Institutional interest has played a significant role in Bitcoin’s recent price action. On October 24, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows totaling $446.6 million. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) brought in $324.3 million, while Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) attracted $52.3 million. These numbers underscore the increasing confidence among institutions in Bitcoin as a foundational investment. Despite recent volatility, including a $1.23 billion outflow during the week of October 13, the rapid turnaround indicates that institutional players are viewing price dips as opportunities to enter the market.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently trading beneath its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) but remains above the 200-day EMA. This setup points to a short-term bearish tendency, while the longer-term trend stays positive. If the price breaks above the 50-day EMA on the daily chart, it could pave the way for a move toward $115,000, with the record high of $125,671 still within reach for bullish traders. Conversely, if Bitcoin falls below the 200-day EMA, it may revisit the October 17 low of $103,576 and could potentially decline to $100,000.

The market is currently in a wait-and-see mode as participants look ahead to major macroeconomic events. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate announcement on October 29 is expected to be a pivotal factor for market sentiment. Analysts believe that a dovish approach, especially if it hints at a rate cut in December, could support Bitcoin demand. On the other hand, a more hawkish stance might put pressure on risk assets. Additionally, the ongoing U.S.-China trade discussions, including a possible meeting between President Trump and President Xi, add another layer of uncertainty.

Backtest Hypothesis

With Bitcoin consolidating above $110,000 and the possibility of a breakout, a backtesting approach focused on the MACD Golden Cross may shed light on how institutional investors and trading algorithms could respond. The hypothesis uses standard MACD settings (12- and 26-period EMAs, plus a 9-period signal line), where a buy signal is generated when the MACD line crosses above the signal line. The exit would occur if BTCUSD closes at or above $114,500. If this target is not achieved, any open trades would be closed at the conclusion of the backtest period (October 25, 2025).

Each trade would utilize the full available capital, with only one position open at a time to maintain clear performance tracking. The backtest would use daily closing prices for BTCUSD, covering the period from January 1, 2022, to October 25, 2025, to provide a thorough assessment of the strategy across different market phases. The findings could help traders and investors evaluate whether a MACD-based approach is effective in the current landscape, especially as institutional ETF activity and macroeconomic factors evolve.