Polymarket activity rebounds to new highs while Kalshi dominates in volume

Decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket saw a notable resurgence in activity last month, while rival Kalshi remained the dominant player by volume in October.

The Block's data shows that the number of Polymarket's monthly active traders climbed to an all-time high of 477,850 in October, exceeding the former high of 462,600 recorded in January. 

This marks a comeback from a decline in monthly traders throughout the year, falling as low as 227,420 in August. October's figure represents a 93.7% increase from September, when the platform reported 246,610 monthly users.

Polymarket's monthly volume also rebounded to a new high of $3.02 billion last month, after staying below or around $1 billion from February through August. The platform saw 38,270 new markets in October, nearly three times the number recorded in August.

"October saw a jump in activity as crypto traders shared new strategies to earn from liquidity providing, arbitrage, and information asymmetry due to Polymarket's decentralized access and function as event-driven options trading," said Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research. "As anticipation builds for platform token releases, the sentiment is entirely different from last year, when retail users were mostly gambling on political and sports events."

Upcoming airdrop

While Polymarket currently does not have its own cryptocurrency, Matthew Modabber, its chief marketing officer, recently confirmed plans to launch a native POLY token and an accompanying airdrop. This news may have influenced the spike in activity, as airdrop announcements typically attract a large number of traders who flock to the platform to meet eligibility criteria.

Polymarket is now focusing its efforts on relaunching in the U.S. , targeting completion before the end of November. The relaunch would be a milestone for the platform, which exited the country following a 2022 enforcement case with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission that resulted in a $1.4 million penalty. 

Since then, the CFTC has softened its previously restrictive stance on prediction markets, signaling greater openness to viewing them as innovative frontiers in the new era of information and finance.

Meanwhile, U.S.-regulated prediction market platform Kalshi outpaced Polymarket's monthly volume with $4.4 billion, solidifying the leadership position established in September. 

Bloomberg reported last month that Kalshi is receiving investment proposals from venture capital investors that would value the company at up to $12 billion. Earlier in October, it raised $300 million at a $5 billion valuation.