Wintermute: Cryptocurrencies Continue to Underperform Traditional Assets, Traditional Four-Year Cycle Concept Has Become Obsolete

Jinse Finance reported that cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute stated that despite a supportive macro environment—including interest rate cuts, the end of quantitative tightening, and stock markets nearing all-time highs—cryptocurrencies continue to lag behind other asset classes. The article points out that global liquidity is expanding, but capital has not flowed into the cryptocurrency market. Among the three major capital inflow engines driving performance in the first half of this year, only the supply of stablecoins continues to grow (up 50% year-to-date, increasing by $100 billions), while ETF capital inflows have stagnated since the summer, with BTC ETF assets under management hovering around $150 billions, and digital asset trading (DAT) activity has also dried up. In terms of altcoins, the gaming sector fell 21% week-on-week, layer 2 networks dropped 19%, and meme coins declined 18%. Only the AI and DePIN sectors showed relative resilience. Wintermute believes that the four-year cycle concept no longer applies to mature markets, and liquidity is currently the key driver of performance. They will closely monitor ETF capital inflows and DAT activity, as these will be important signals for liquidity returning to the cryptocurrency market.