Bitcoin News Today: JPMorgan's $170K Bitcoin Projection Ignites Discussion: Risk Assessment Versus Macro Doubters

JPMorgan Chase & Co. has sparked renewed discussion about Bitcoin’s value, predicting the cryptocurrency could climb to $170,000 within the next six to twelve months. The bank argues that Bitcoin is currently trading well below its fair value compared to gold when adjusting for risk, according to

. Their assessment is based on a comparison of volatility between and gold, with the implication that Bitcoin’s price would need to increase to match the risk characteristics of the traditional safe-haven asset.

As reported by

strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Bitcoin’s recent drop below $100,000 after a sharp October decline—triggered by leveraged liquidations and a $128 million exploit—has helped eliminate excess leverage in the futures market, according to Bitcoin Magazine. The ratio of open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures to its total market value has since returned to typical levels, suggesting that short-term selling pressure has eased, TradeBrains noted. Meanwhile, gold has seen heightened volatility as its price neared all-time highs, making Bitcoin increasingly appealing to those seeking protection from macroeconomic uncertainty, as highlighted by TradingView.

JPMorgan’s analysis finds that Bitcoin currently requires 1.8 times more risk capital than gold. For Bitcoin to reach parity with gold’s $6.2 trillion private-sector investment on a risk-adjusted basis, its market capitalization would need to grow by 67%, which would put its price near $170,000, CoinDesk reported. This estimate is a stark contrast to Bitcoin’s present value of about $102,000, according to TradeBrains. “While Bitcoin was overpriced by $36,000 compared to gold at the end of last year, it is now undervalued by roughly $68,000,” Panigirtzoglou stated, as cited by Bitcoin Magazine.

The bank’s optimistic outlook comes at a time of heightened market volatility. The October downturn, which wiped out more than $19 billion in perpetual futures contracts, represented Bitcoin’s weakest October since 2018, according to Bitcoin Magazine. Broader economic challenges, such as trade disputes and unclear central bank policies, have added to the turbulence. Nevertheless, JPMorgan points out that ETF outflows have been relatively minor compared to previous inflows, suggesting that the market may be stabilizing, as reported by Bitcoin Magazine.

However, not all market observers share JPMorgan’s bullish perspective. Galaxy Digital, for example, recently reduced its 2025 Bitcoin price forecast from $185,000 to $120,000, citing economic headwinds, large-scale selling by major holders, and a shift in investor focus toward AI and gold, The Block reported. Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of research, described Bitcoin as entering a “mature phase” with slower growth driven by institutional adoption and less retail activity, Benzinga reported. The firm also noted that 470,000 bitcoin—worth $50 billion—were moved from long-term holders in October, creating ongoing resistance at significant price points, according to Benzinga.

The differing outlooks highlight the shifting landscape of the cryptocurrency market. While JPMorgan’s risk-adjusted model underscores Bitcoin’s potential as a digital counterpart to gold, critics point to short-term obstacles like ETF-related liquidity issues and changing global capital flows, Cointribune reported. Morgan Stanley has recently echoed JPMorgan’s positive institutional stance, giving Galaxy Digital an Overweight rating due to its involvement in both AI infrastructure and blockchain technology, TradeBrains noted.

As this debate continues, investors are considering whether Bitcoin’s recent decline represents a buying opportunity or signals a period of extended sideways movement. JPMorgan’s $170,000 projection, based on quantitative risk analysis, reflects confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, even as near-term fundamentals remain under scrutiny, TradeBrains observed.