BNY projects a $3.6 trillion stablecoin market, contingent upon regulatory clarity and institutional cooperation
- BNY Mellon forecasts $3.6T stablecoin/tokenized cash market by 2030, driven by institutional adoption and regulatory progress. - EU MiCA and U.S. GENIUS Act (2025) mandate 100% reserve backing, fostering institutional confidence through clear compliance standards. - JPMorgan's JPMD stablecoin and USDsui's yield-focused model exemplify institutional blockchain integration for faster payments and liquidity. - Regulatory fragmentation and UK-style reserve caps could hinder growth, while permissioned chains
According to a report released on November 10, BNY Mellon anticipates that the combined market value of stablecoins and tokenized cash assets could soar to $3.6 trillion by 2030, fueled by greater institutional involvement and progress in regulation.
Regulatory clarity is seen as a key driver for this expansion. The report pointed to the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation and the U.S. GENIUS Act, enacted in 2025, as pivotal for enabling large-scale stablecoin issuance, according to CoinDesk. These regulations require payment stablecoins to be fully backed by reserves and set out clear compliance guidelines, which help build institutional trust, as CoinDesk reported.
Institutional engagement is also crucial. BNY stated that for the market to grow beyond a specialized $400 billion to $800 billion range, major banks must issue tokenized deposits for collateral, repo deals, and intraday liquidity, as CryptoSlate mentioned. JPMorgan’s recent introduction of its dollar-pegged stablecoin, JPM Coin (JPMD), on Coinbase’s Base network is a case in point. This token allows for continuous, nearly instant institutional payments, with future plans to support more currencies and blockchains, according to a
However, reaching the $3.6 trillion mark is not without risks. JPMorgan has offered a more reserved estimate, suggesting that without more defined use cases, stablecoin adoption could stall below $500 billion by 2028, as noted by CryptoSlate. Meanwhile, the
The effects on
In the end, realizing the stablecoin vision depends on aligning regulations, user experience, and technical infrastructure. As BNY’s Carolyn Weinberg remarked, this pivotal moment could reshape global capital markets—but only if blockchain and traditional finance advance together, as CoinDesk highlighted.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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