China's Soybean Purchases Decline, U.S. Growers Confront Surplus and Rivalry from Brazil

Although China and the U.S. recently reached a trade agreement to restart soybean imports, American farmers remain skeptical, as Chinese purchases are still well below what they were before the trade conflict and face tough competition from more affordable South American soybeans. According to the deal announced at the end of October, China

of U.S. soybeans by the end of this year, with plans to buy 25 million tons annually over the next three years. Yet, forecasts show that U.S. soybean exports to China are in 2025 compared to 2024, leaving farmers to contend with excess supply, rising production expenses, and a global market increasingly led by Brazil and Argentina.

The agreement, reached during a period of heightened tensions between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping,

on American agricultural products but maintained a 13% tariff on soybeans. This has kept U.S. soybeans less competitive in price compared to Brazilian beans, which have seen a surge in exports lately. According to traders, of Brazilian soybeans for December, with more scheduled for early 2026, taking advantage of lower prices. "Brazilian soybeans are now cheaper than those from the U.S. Gulf, so buyers are locking in deals," said a trader at a Chinese oilseed company.

This shift has left American farmers like Scott Gaffner from Illinois uncertain about the future. Gaffner, whose family usually sells 40% of their soybeans to China,

this year until a sale in late October. "We just want to keep our business going," he said, reflecting the views of many Midwest farmers, where soybeans make up 14% of U.S. agricultural exports. In Wisconsin, a major soybean-producing state, the outlook is especially grim, with prices falling below the cost of production and .

Ongoing structural issues add to the trade worries.

have reached a record 10.3 million tons at ports, and processors are holding another 7.5 million tons, reducing the need for additional imports. Despite the trade agreement, state-owned Chinese buyers have not made significant new purchases, to threaten further tariff changes to ensure compliance. "The unpredictability of trade policy makes planning nearly impossible," said Paul Mitchell, an agricultural economist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Federal support programs, such as a $30 billion aid package for farmers,

but do not resolve the underlying problems. Critics warn that these subsidies could inflate land values and foster reliance on government help, as has happened before. "We keep giving farmers money just to get them through another season," said Joe Maxwell of Action Farm Fund, a farmer advocacy organization.

While the trade pact sets a minimum for U.S. soybean exports, analysts warn that China's promises remain uncertain. "The annual target of 25 million tons

," said Kang Wei Cheang of StoneX Group. With Brazil maintaining its lead in the global soybean market and U.S.-China relations still strained, American farmers may find it difficult to regain their former market position.