BTC Falls Toward Mid-$80Ks as Market Structure Weakens Into Year-End

Bitcoin extended its slide Friday morning Hong Kong time, dropping below $85,500, CoinDesk data shows, as the market absorbed a fresh wave of selling pressure and another shift in global rate expectations.

The decline leaves BTC down more than 7% over the past 24 hours and more than 20% over the past month, outpacing losses across equities, which remain comparatively firm thanks to strong earnings from Nvidia, which fought off fears of an AI bubble.

(CoinDesk)

In a note published on Telegram, market maker FlowDesk said the market continues to struggle amid a heavy supply of coins hitting centralized exchanges from long-dormant bitcoin wallets, with tens of thousands of coins moving after years of inactivity.

These flows have overwhelmed the bid, keeping spot activity decisively skewed toward sellers. The firm added that managers are now positioning defensively into year-end, more focused on protecting gains than adding exposure, which has thinned liquidity at key support levels.

FlowDesk also noted that derivatives flows mirror the weakness in spot, with large BTC and ETH buyers on the downside and traders rolling put positions lower to maintain protection as volatility curves remain heavily tilted toward puts.

Options data from Deribit shows a similar reversal in sentiment, CoinDesk previously reported, with the once-dominant $140,000 call now eclipsed by the $85,000 put, which has become the largest open-interest strike in the entire BTC options market as traders reposition for further downside.

As the market continues its slide, all eyes are now on MSTR as BTC's price edges towards MicroStrategy's average break-even point of $74,430.

In a recent note, JPMorgan said the stock’s underperformance reflects mounting anxiety over a possible removal from the MSCI index in January, a decision that could trigger billions in passive outflows and inject another layer of stress into an already fragile crypto market.