QCP Capital: End-of-Cycle Strength Withstands Crypto Downturn and Global Uncertainty

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QCP Capital: End-of-Cycle Strength Withstands Crypto Downturn and Global Uncertainty

Bitget-RWA2025/11/21 13:16

By:Bitget-RWA

- QCP Capital identifies late-cycle resilience in global markets, dismissing recession fears despite recent volatility and crypto declines. - Fed rate-cut odds drop to 30% amid inflation uncertainty, while Bitcoin/Ethereum fall 20% and BlackRock's ETF sees $523M outflow. - Qfin Holdings reports 39-49% Q4 net income decline, contrasting energy/logistics sector growth in LNG vessels and LFP battery demand. - Jacobs Engineering's 16% EPS growth highlights infrastructure demand, as QCP advocates late-cycle bet

QCP Capital observes that global financial markets are currently displaying typical signs of a late-cycle phase, but asserts that the recent volatility does not necessarily point to an imminent economic downturn. Their latest analysis, released during a week marked by conflicting economic data and corporate results, emphasizes how central bank decisions, investor attitudes, and sector-specific trends are collectively influencing market movements.

Their evaluation comes at a time when

the probability of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in December has dropped to 30%

, highlighting ongoing doubts about inflation and the economy’s strength. QCP Capital’s perspective stands in contrast to the negative momentum in cryptocurrency markets, where

Bitcoin

and

Ethereum

have each declined by more than 20% over the past month,

pulling down related stocks, including Circle and Bitmine

. At the same time,

BlackRock’s iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF experienced a record outflow of $523 million

on November 19, intensifying overall market anxiety.

QCP Capital: End-of-Cycle Strength Withstands Crypto Downturn and Global Uncertainty image 0

Corporate developments further illustrate the complexities of the current landscape.

Qfin Holdings, a credit technology company based in China, reported a 39–49% year-over-year drop

in net income for the fourth quarter, citing broad economic uncertainty and a more cautious approach to risk. Company executives stressed the importance of caution, forecasting non-GAAP net income for Q4 2025 to fall between RMB1.0 billion and RMB1.2 billion. This careful stance reflects the wider mood in the markets,

with QCP Capital highlighting that investors are adjusting their outlooks

as central banks postpone new stimulus efforts.

Despite this, the energy and logistics industries are demonstrating strength.

Capital Clean Energy Carriers Corp. revealed the sale

of a neo-panamax container ship, and is preparing to add six LNG-powered vessels to its fleet between 2026 and 2027. This growth supports international decarbonization initiatives, even as the company faces regulatory and market uncertainties. In a separate development,

manufacturers of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries are benefiting from rising demand

for electric vehicles and renewable energy storage, with the sector expected to expand at a 14.2% compound annual growth rate through 2030.

QCP Capital’s rejection of recession fears is further reinforced by the strong showing of infrastructure and technology shares. For example, Jacobs Engineering

posted a 16% year-over-year rise in adjusted earnings per share

for the fourth quarter of 2025, fueled by advances in key infrastructure and energy projects. The company’s robust project pipeline and its presence across sectors such as transportation, water, and life sciences underscore the fundamental demand supporting long-term economic growth.

In the months ahead, the durability of the markets will be put to the test as investors balance central bank moves with company results. QCP Capital recommends concentrating on late-cycle prospects, such as productivity improvements driven by artificial intelligence and the adoption of green technologies. Nevertheless, with ongoing geopolitical risks and instability in energy markets, the outlook remains highly uncertain.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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