Economist: December rate cut becomes highly probable again, Williams' remarks set the tone for the market

BlockBeats News, November 24 — The remarks made last Friday by John Williams, President of the New York Federal Reserve and an ally of Powell, have set a major tone for the market, making a Fed rate cut in December once again a highly probable event. Williams' statement has been interpreted as a consensus signal from the Fed's top leadership, leading to a significant revision in market expectations. Josh Hirt, Senior Economist at Vanguard, pointed out that he personally believes the Fed will cut rates, and Williams' stance means that the three most influential Fed officials—Powell, Williams, and Fed Governor Waller—all support a new round of easing. "We believe this is a very weighty camp, and it will be hard to shake."

Communications from the Fed—especially those from the highest levels—are rarely accidental. Signals from the top, particularly statements from the Chair, Vice Chair, and the highly influential President of the New York Fed, are carefully weighed: they must convey a clear policy direction while avoiding excessive reactions in financial markets. This is precisely why Williams' speech last Friday was so significant for the market. By virtue of his position, he is one of the Fed's "Big Three" leaders, alongside Chair Powell and Vice Chair Jefferson. When Williams hinted at "the possibility of further rate adjustments in the near term," investors interpreted this as a clear signal from the top: the Fed leadership is inclined to cut rates at least once more in the near future, with the most likely timing being the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

After Williams' speech last Friday, the probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in December rose to 71.3%, and is now at 67.3%. Bets on a December rate cut have heated up again, after the probability had previously fallen below 30%.