How do 8 Top Investment Banks View 2026? Gemini Read Through for You and Highlighted the Key Points

Original Title: Bank Outlooks 2026 Research Plan

Original Author: szj capital

Original Translator: Deep Tide TechFlow

As the year comes to a close, major institutions have begun to forecast the market for the coming year.

Recently, overseas netizens have compiled the annual outlook reports of 8 top investment banks including Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, Barclays, and HSBC, allowing Gemini Pro3 to conduct a comprehensive interpretation and analysis.

The following is a full translation to help you save time and get an overview of next year's key economic trends.

Executive Summary: Embracing the "K-Shaped" New World Order

2026 is destined to be a period of profound structural transformation, characterized not by a singular synchronized global cycle, but by a complex and diverse economic reality intertwined with policy dissonance and thematic disruption. This comprehensive research report brings together forward-looking strategies and economic forecasts from leading global financial institutions, including J.P. Morgan Asset Management, BlackRock, HSBC Global Private Banking, Barclays Private Bank, BNP Paribas Asset Management, Invesco, T. Rowe Price, and Allianz.

These institutions collectively paint a picture of a "bend but not break" global economic landscape: the past decade's "easy money" era has been replaced by a new paradigm of "Higher for Longer" interest rates, Fiscal Dominance, and Technological Disruption. The core theme of 2026, as identified by Barclays Private Bank, is "The Interpretation Game," an environment of conflicting economic data and rapidly changing narratives where market participants must actively interpret conflicting signals rather than rely on passive investment.

One of the key pillars of 2026 is the significant divergence between the United States and other countries. J.P. Morgan and T. Rowe Price believe that the U.S. economy is being driven by AI capital expenditures and a fiscal stimulus known as the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA)," creating a unique growth dynamic. This stimulus is expected to bring an "excitement effect" of over 3% in early 2026, gradually tapering off thereafter; while Allianz and BNP Paribas expect the Eurozone to exhibit a "flat is the new beautiful" mode of recovery.

However, beneath the surface growth numbers lies a more turbulent reality. Allianz has warned that the global corporate bankruptcy rate will hit a "historic high," with a projected 5% increase by 2026, representing the final blow to "zombie firms" from the high-rate hangover effect. This scenario outlines a "K-shaped" expansion where large-cap tech companies and infrastructure sectors thrive due to the "AI Mega Force" (BlackRock concept), while leverage-dependent small businesses face a survival crisis.

Asset allocation consensus is undergoing a significant shift. The traditional 60/40 investment portfolio (60% stocks, 40% bonds) is being redefined. BlackRock has introduced the concept of the "New Continuum," suggesting that the boundaries between public and private markets are blurring, and investors need to permanently allocate to private credit and infrastructure assets. Schroders and HSBC recommend a return to "quality" in fixed income investments, favoring investment-grade bonds and emerging market debt while shunning high-yield bonds.

This report systematically analyzes each institution's investment themes, covering "Physical AI" trading, the "Electrotech Economy," the rise of protectionism and tariffs, and the strategic focuses investors should take in this fractured world.

Part 1: Macroeconomic Landscape — A Multi-Speed Growth World

In the post-pandemic era, the anticipated synchronized global recovery has not materialized. 2026 presents a landscape characterized by unique growth drivers and policy differentiations. Major economies are progressing at varying speeds due to their fiscal, political, and structural forces.

1.1 United States: The "North Star" of the Global Economy and the OBBBA Stimulus

The United States remains the undisputed engine of the global economy, but its growth dynamics are shifting. It is no longer solely reliant on organic consumer demand but increasingly on government fiscal policy and corporate capital expenditure in artificial intelligence.

The Phenomenon of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA)

A key finding in Morgan Stanley Investment Management and PIMCO's 2026 outlook is the anticipated impact of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA). This legislative framework is seen as the defining fiscal event of 2026.

· Operation Mechanism: Morgan Stanley highlights that the OBBBA is a comprehensive legislative package that extends key provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) while introducing new spending items. It includes around $170 billion for border security (law enforcement, deportation) and $150 billion for defense spending (such as the "Golden Dome" missile defense system and shipbuilding). Additionally, the bill raises the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, indicating that loose fiscal policy will continue.

· Economic Impact: PwC Group believes that this bill, combined with AI spending, will help the U.S. economy break free from growth anxiety by the end of 2025. JPMorgan Chase predicts that OBBBA will drive real GDP growth to around 1% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and accelerate to over 3% in the first half of 2026 as tax refunds and spending flow directly into the economy. However, this growth is seen as a temporary surge — a reversal of the "fiscal cliff" — as growth is expected to taper off to a 1-2% trend line in the second half of the year.

· Tax Impact: The bill is expected to permanently extend the 37% top individual income tax rate and restore 100% bonus depreciation for businesses and R&D expense deductions. Morgan Stanley highlights that this is a significant supply-side incentive that could lower the effective corporate tax rate in certain industries to as low as 12%, driving a "Capex Supercycle" in manufacturing and technology sectors.

The Labor Market Paradox: "Economic Drift"

Despite fiscal stimulus, the U.S. economy continues to face a major structural impediment: labor supply. JPMorgan Chase describes this environment as "Economic Drift," noting that a sharp decline in net immigration is expected to result in an absolute decrease in the working-age population.

· Impact on Growth: This supply constraint implies that only 50,000 new jobs are expected to be added per month in 2026. This is not a failure of demand but a bottleneck on the supply side.

· Unemployment Rate Ceiling: Therefore, the unemployment rate is expected to remain at a low level, peaking at 4.5%. This "full employment" dynamic, while preventing a deep recession, also sets a hard limit on potential GDP growth, further exacerbating the sense of economic "drift" — despite positive data, the economy appears to be stagnating.

1.2 Eurozone: The Surprising Nature of "Flat is Beautiful"

In stark contrast to the U.S. narrative full of volatility and fiscal drama, the Eurozone is gradually becoming a symbol of stability. Allianz and BNP Paribas believe that Europe may outperform expectations and excel in 2026.

Germany's "Fiscal Reset"

BNP Paribas points out that Germany is undergoing a critical structural transformation. Germany is gradually moving away from its traditional "black zero" fiscal austerity policy and is expected to significantly increase spending in infrastructure and defense. This fiscal expansion is expected to have a multiplier effect across the entire Eurozone, boosting economic activity levels in 2026.

Consumer Support Policy

In addition, BNP Paribas mentioned that permanent measures such as the reduced VAT for the restaurant industry and energy subsidies would support consumer spending, thereby avoiding a demand collapse.

Growth Forecast

Allianz forecasts that the Eurozone's GDP growth rate in 2026 will be between 1.2% and 1.5%. While this number may seem modest compared to the US's "OBBBA stimulus," it represents a robust and sustainable recovery from the stagnation of 2023-2025. Barclays also shares a similar view, believing that the Eurozone may bring "positive surprises."

1.3 Asia and Emerging Markets: "Extended Runway" and Structural Slowdown

The outlook for Asia shows a clear dichotomy: on one hand, there is a gradually maturing China with slowing growth, and on the other hand, there is the dynamic and rapidly growing India and ASEAN region.

China: Orderly Deceleration

Major institutions generally agree that China's era of high-speed growth has ended.

· Structural Resistance: BNP Paribas forecasts that by the end of 2027, China's economic growth rate will slow to below 4%. PwC Group adds that despite stimulus measures, due to deep-rooted issues in the real estate market and population structure, these measures are unlikely to bring about a "substantial boost."

· Targeted Stimulus: Different from a comprehensive "all-out" stimulus, the Chinese government is expected to focus on supporting the "advanced manufacturing" and strategic industries. This shift aims to move the economy upstream in the value chain but will sacrifice short-term consumption growth. Barclays predicts that China's consumption growth in 2026 will be only 2.2%.

India and ASEAN: Growth Engines

In contrast, HSBC and S&P Global believe that South Asia and Southeast Asia are becoming the new global growth champions.

· India's Growth Trajectory: HSBC expects India's GDP growth rate in 2026 to be 6.3%, making it one of the fastest-growing major economies. However, HSBC also issues a tactical warning: despite strong macroeconomic performance, there may be a relative weakness in short-term corporate earnings growth, potentially creating a disconnect with high valuations that could affect equity investors.

· Artificial Intelligence in the Supply Chain: Both J.P. Morgan and HSBC emphasize the significant role of the "Artificial Intelligence theme" in driving Asia's emerging markets, especially in Taiwan and South Korea (semiconductor sector) and ASEAN countries (data center assembly and component manufacturing). The "expansion" of artificial intelligence trade is a key driver in the region.

1.4 Global Trade: The "Tariff Tax Effect"

In the 2026 outlook, a potential shadow is the resurgence of protectionism. HSBC has clearly lowered its global growth expectations from 2.5% to 2.3%, mainly due to the United States' initiation of "omnibus tariffs."

Stagnation in Trade Growth

HSBC predicts that global trade growth in 2026 will be only 0.6%. This near-stagnant state reflects a world where supply chains are shortening ("nearshore outsourcing") and realigning to circumvent tariff barriers.

Inflation Pressure

S&P Global warns that these tariffs will act as consumption taxes, leading to sustained inflation in the United States "above target levels."

Part Two: The Conundrum of Inflation and Interest Rates

The era of the "Great Moderation" prior to the 2020s has been replaced by a new normal of volatility. Stubborn inflation in the United States intertwined with deflationary pressures in Europe has driven a "Great Decoupling" of central bank policies.

2.1 Divergence in Inflation

· United States: Stubborn and Structural

S&P Global and BNP Paribas see high inflation persisting in the United States due to OBBBA fiscal stimuli and tariff impacts. J.P. Morgan provides a more detailed analysis, expecting inflation to peak near 4% in the first half of 2026 due to tariff increases but to recede to 2% by year-end as the economy gradually absorbs the shock.

· Europe: Deflationary Surprise

In contrast, BNP Paribas notes that Europe faces deflationary pressures, partly due to the re-circulation of "cheap Chinese export goods" entering the European market. This may lead to inflation below the European Central Bank's (ECB) target, contrasting sharply with the inflation trend in the United States.

2.2 Decoupling of Central Bank Policies

The divergence in inflation dynamics has directly led to a split in monetary policies, creating opportunities for macro investors.

· Federal Reserve ("Gradual" Path)

The Federal Reserve is expected to be constrained. J.P. Morgan anticipates that the Fed may only cut rates 2-3 times by 2026. On the other hand, PIMCO is more hawkish, warning that if the OBBBA fiscal stimulus leads to overheating, the Fed may not be able to cut rates at all in the first half of 2026.

· European Central Bank ("Dovish" Path)

Facing weak growth prospects and deflationary pressures, the European Central Bank is expected to make significant rate cuts. Allianz and BNP Paribas predict that the ECB will lower rates to 1.5%-2.0%, well below current market expectations.

· Impact on the Foreign Exchange Market

This widening interest rate differential (with U.S. rates remaining high and Eurozone rates falling) implies a structural strength of the U.S. dollar against the euro, contrary to the consensus that the dollar weakens during economic cycles maturity. However, Invesco holds the opposite view, betting that a weaker dollar will support emerging market assets.

Part Three: In-Depth Analysis of Themes - "Mega Forces" and Structural Transformation

The investment strategy for 2026 no longer revolves around the traditional business cycle but is centered on the structural "Mega Forces" (a concept proposed by BlackRock) that surpass quarterly GDP data.

3.1 Artificial Intelligence: From "Hype" to "Physical Reality"

The narrative of artificial intelligence is shifting from software (such as large language models) to hardware and infrastructure ("Physical AI").

· "Capex Super Cycle": J.P. Morgan points out that data center investment accounts for 1.2%-1.3% of U.S. GDP and continues to rise. This is not a transient trend but a substantial expansion of steel, concrete, and silicon-based technology.

· "Electrotech Economy": Barclays has introduced the concept of the "Electrotech Economy." The demand for energy by artificial intelligence is limitless. Investments in the grid, renewable energy generation, and utilities are seen as the safest ways to participate in the AI wave. HSBC agrees and recommends shifting portfolios to the utility and industrial sectors, which will "power" this revolution.

· Contrarian Viewpoint (HSBC's Warning): In stark contrast to the market's optimistic consensus, HSBC holds a deep skepticism regarding the financial viability of current AI model leaders. According to its internal analysis, companies like OpenAI may face computing lease costs as high as $18 trillion by 2030, leading to a significant funding gap. HSBC believes that while AI is a reality, the profitability of model creators is questionable. This further supports its recommendation to invest in "tools and equipment" (such as chip manufacturers, utilities) rather than model developers.

3.2 The "New Continuum" of the Private Market

BlackRock's 2026 Outlook is centered on the evolution of the private market. They believe the traditional dichotomy between the "public market" (high liquidity) and "private market" (low liquidity) is outdated.

· Rise of the Continuum: Through structures like "Evergreen," European Long-Term Investment Funds (ELTIFs), and secondary markets, private assets are gradually achieving semi-liquidity. This democratizing trend allows more investors to access the "liquidity premium."

· Private Credit 2.0: BlackRock believes that private credit is evolving from the traditional leveraged buyout model to "Asset-Based Financing (ABF)." This model uses real assets (such as data centers, fiber networks, logistics centers) as collateral, rather than solely relying on enterprise cash flow. They believe this brings about "profound incremental opportunities" for 2026.

3.3 Demographics and Labor Shortages

JPMorgan Chase and BlackRock see demographic shifts as a slow but unstoppable driver.

· Immigration Cliff: JPMorgan Chase predicts that the decline in net migration in the U.S. will be a key growth constraint. This implies that the labor force will continue to be scarce and costly, which will not only underpin wage inflation but also further incentivize companies to invest in automation and AI to replace human labor.

Part Four: Asset Allocation Strategy—The Return of "60/40+" and Alpha

Multiple institutions unanimously agree that 2026 will no longer favor the passive "buy the market" strategy popular in the 2010s. In the new market environment, investors will need to rely on active management, diversify into alternative assets, and focus on "quality."

4.1 Portfolio Construction: "60/40+" Model

JPMorgan Chase and BlackRock have explicitly called for reforming the traditional 60% stock/40% bond portfolio.

· The "+" Component: The two institutions advocate for adopting the "60/40+" model, allocating about 20% of the portfolio to alternative assets (private equity, private credit, real assets). This allocation aims to provide returns unrelated to traditional assets, while reducing the overall portfolio volatility in an environment of increased stock and bond correlation.

4.2 Stock Market: Quality and Rotation

· U.S. Stocks: BlackRock and HSBC are overweight on U.S. stocks, primarily benefiting from the artificial intelligence theme and economic resilience. However, HSBC has recently reduced its allocation to U.S. stocks due to overvaluation. They suggest shifting from "mega-cap tech stocks" to broader beneficiaries (such as the financial and industrial sectors).

· International Value Stocks: JPMorgan Chase believes there are strong investment opportunities in European and Japanese value stocks. These markets are undergoing a "corporate governance revolution" (including share buybacks and increased dividends), and their valuations are at a historical discount compared to the U.S.

· Emerging Markets: Schroders is most bullish on emerging markets. They are betting that a weakening U.S. dollar (contrary to other institutions' forecasts) will unlock the value of emerging market assets.

4.3 Fixed Income: The Revival of Yield

The role of bonds is evolving, no longer solely relying on capital appreciation (betting on rate cuts) but returning to its "yield" essence.

· Credit Quality: Given Allianz's warning of rising corporate default rates, HSBC and Schroders strongly favor Investment Grade (IG) bonds over High Yield (HY) bonds. The risk premium of high yield bonds is considered insufficient to compensate for the upcoming default cycle.

· Duration Allocation: Schroders has an overweight stance on duration (especially UK government bonds), expecting central bank rate cuts to be faster than market expectations. JPMorgan Chase, on the other hand, recommends maintaining "flexibility," trading within ranges rather than making large directional bets.

· CLOs (Collateralized Loan Obligations): Schroders explicitly includes AAA-rated CLOs (Collateralized Loan Obligations) in its model portfolio, believing their yield enhancement and structural safety are superior to cash assets.

4.4 Alternative Assets and Hedge Tools

· Infrastructure: Infrastructure investment is the most confident direction in "real asset" trading. BlackRock refers to it as a "cross-generational opportunity" that not only hedges against inflation but also directly benefits from the wave of artificial intelligence capital expenditure.

· Gold: HSBC and Schroders consider gold a key portfolio hedge tool. Against the backdrop of geopolitical fragmentation and potential inflation volatility, gold is seen as a necessary "tail risk" insurance.

Part Five: Risk Assessment — Shadow of Bankruptcy

While the macroeconomic outlook in the United States appears strong due to fiscal stimulus, credit data reveals a more gloomy picture. Allianz offers a sober reflection on the market's optimism.

5.1 Wave of Bankruptcies

Allianz predicts that the global commercial bankruptcy rate will rise by 6% in 2025 and increase by another 5% in 2026.

· "Lagging Trauma": This growth is attributed to the delayed impact of high interest rates. Companies that locked in low rates in 2020-2021 will face a "maturity wall" in 2026, forcing them to refinance at significantly higher costs.

· "Tech Bubble Burst" Scenario: Allianz explicitly simulates a downside scenario, the burst of the "artificial intelligence bubble." In this scenario, it is expected that the U.S. will see an additional 4,500 bankruptcies, Germany 4,000, and France 1,000.

5.2 Vulnerable Industries

The report highlights several industries particularly susceptible to impact:

· Construction: Highly sensitive to interest rates and labor costs.

· Retail/Discretionary Consumer Goods: Squeezed by "K-shaped" consumption trends, with significantly reduced spending by low-income consumers.

· Automotive Industry: Facing multiple pressures of high capital costs, supply chain restructuring, and trade wars.

This risk assessment further supports a "quality-first" approach in asset allocation. The report warns investors to avoid "zombie" companies that survive solely due to cheap funding.

Part 6: Comparative Analysis of Institutional Views

The following table synthesizes the specific GDP and inflation forecasts for 2026 provided in institutional reports, highlighting expected divergences.

Conclusion: Strategic Imperatives for 2026

The investment landscape of 2026 is defined by the tension of two forces: Fiscal and Technological Optimism (U.S. OBBBA plan, Artificial Intelligence) and Credit and Structural Pessimism (Wave of bankruptcies, demographic structural issues).

For professional investors, the path forward requires a departure from broad index-based investments. The characteristics of a "K-shaped" economy - with data center prosperity and construction firm bankruptcies - demand that investors actively make industry selections.

Key Strategic Points:

· Focus on the "OBBBA" Pulse: The timing of the U.S. fiscal stimulus will determine the rhythm of the first half of 2026. Crafting tactical trading strategies for the "stimulus effect" on U.S. assets in the first and second quarters, as well as the potential fallback in the second half, is a prudent move (J.P. Morgan).

· Invest in AI "Tools and Equipment": Avoid valuation risks with purely AI models (HSBC's warning), focus on physical infrastructure such as utilities, grids, and data center REITs (Barclays, BlackRock).

· Achieve Diversification Through the Private Markets: Leveraging the "new continuum" to enter private credit and infrastructure, ensuring these assets are "asset-based" to withstand the impact of a wave of bankruptcies (BlackRock, Allianz).

· Hedge the "Interpretation Game": In a rapidly changing narrative environment, maintain structural hedging tools such as gold and adopt a "barbell strategy" (growth equities + high-quality income assets) to manage volatility (HSBC, Invesco).

2026 will not be a year suited for passive investment but rather one for investors adept at interpreting market signals.