Previous Call King Murad: 116 Reasons Why This Bull Market Isn't Over

Original Article Title: 116 Reasons why Crypto BULL MARKET is NOT OVER

Original Article Source: MustStopMurad

Original Article Translation: DeepTech TechFlow

Key Points Summary

Remember the call king Murad from the last cycle? Yes, the one who proposed the Meme Super Cycle theory.

Now he's back.

In this podcast, Murad shared 116 bullish reasons, data analysis, and on-chain signals indicating that the cryptocurrency market's bull run may continue until 2026.

Murad believes that this market cycle may break the previous 4-year pattern and last longer.

Key Points Highlights

· Bitcoin may see a parabolic rise in the future, reaching a high of $150,000 to $200,000.

· ETF holders have very strong long-term confidence in Bitcoin.

· Bitcoin's bull market is not over and will continue until 2026.

· The stablecoin market is currently in a super cycle.

· Most recent selling pressure came from traders and short-term holders.

· Disagrees with the view that the market cycle is only four years; this cycle may extend to four and a half or even five years and may last until 2026.

· The liquidation volume on the short side is significantly higher than on the long side, with more short positions than long positions.

· Bitcoin's traditional cycle has not triggered any of the 30 signals to reach the top, indicating the market has not yet reached the top region.

· The market trend in 2025, including the current price volatility, may just be a range-bound phase, setting the stage for the next uptrend.

· The maximum pain points for Bitcoin options in late November and December are $102,000 and $99,000, respectively, well above the current market price.

· The Bitcoin price bottomed out near the ETF cost basis range (around $79,000 to $82,000), which also aligns with the realized price of ETFs.

· Additionally, $80,200 (slightly below the recent low) is considered Bitcoin's true market equilibrium price. Multiple price indicators overlap in the range of $79,000 to $83,000, including ETF cost basis, realized price, and market equilibrium price. This price confluence is typically seen as a support region.

· Further analysis of Bitcoin's realized price distribution reveals that the $83,000 to $85,000 range is also a key support and resistance flip area.

Analysis of the Recent BTC Crash

The first question to answer is: Why did Bitcoin (BTC) plummet from $125,000 to $80,000?

Firstly, part of the investors following the four-year cycle theory engaged in significant selling, exacerbating the market's downward pressure. Simultaneously, the prolonged U.S. government shutdown exceeded market expectations, further increasing macroeconomic uncertainty. Due to the government shutdown, there was financing pressure in the repo market, and the slight decline in the stock market also had a negative impact on the BTC price.

Furthermore, some smaller digital reserve companies and early Bitcoin holders also engaged in selling due to market contagion effects. To a lesser extent, some so-called BTC whales expressed dissatisfaction with the latest BTC core update and engaged in a "protest sell-off" behavior. These factors together led to an atypical rapid decline in the Bitcoin price over the past 6 weeks, dropping from $125,000 to $80,000.

Nevertheless, I will demonstrate through 116 reasons and charts that the Bitcoin bull market is not over and is expected to continue until 2026.

116 Reasons Supporting the Continuation of the BTC Bull Market Until 2026

Technical Analysis and Price Structure (TA)

1. The recent 36% drop we witnessed is not unprecedented. If you look at all the retracements of this cycle, this is the fastest, most acute, largest one. However, we saw a 32% retracement in early 2025 and a 33% retracement in mid-2024 as well. These retracements are roughly equivalent to the 36% retracement we currently see. Therefore, compared to the situation in this cycle so far, this is not an unusual occurrence.

2. The 3-day chart has formed a bullish Hammer candlestick pattern, which is typically a reversal formation. We need to wait and see if a bottom can be established over the next two to three weeks, but this specific 3-day candlestick pattern is bullish.

3. We are still in a pattern of consecutive Higher Lows. Looking from a higher timeframe perspective, assuming the 80,005 low is a local low, BTC is still technically forming higher lows.

4. BTC has just tested a two-week demand zone and is fundamentally at a support level.

5. On the monthly timeframe, we are within a long-term ascending parallel channel that started in 2023, with price currently near the diagonal support line. Essentially, this is a bullish structure. It's a slow and steady bull market cycle, but this structure has not been broken yet.

6. On a longer timeframe, there is also an ascending parallel channel on a logarithmic scale, with its diagonal support dating back to 2013. This structure is still technically intact, and we have just tested its lower boundary.

7. Additionally, there is another diagonal line that acted as resistance in early 2021, late 2021, and early 2024. We broke above it towards the end of 2024, tested it as support in early 2025, and are now retesting it as support, which could be just another confirmation of resistance-turned-support.

Momentum and Oversold Indicators

8. The weekly RSI is at its lowest point since the FDX crash. Prior instances of the weekly RSI being at such low levels were the 2018 bear market bottom, the COVID bottom, and the 3AC/Luna flash crash in mid-2022. We are currently roughly at COVID levels, but this is essentially the lowest weekly RSI since 2023. Matching these weekly RSI levels with the chart, you'll typically find they align with the bottom of a bear market or sharp declines like the COVID crash.

9. The daily RSI is at its lowest point in two and a half years, last seen at this level in the summer of 2023. Historical data indicates that when the BTC daily RSI drops below the 21 level, the future expected returns look favorable.

10. Another indicator is Distance from Power Law, currently at a "Buy Zone" level.

11. If you connect all the drawdown bottoms of this cycle, you will find a perfect diagonal support. Some predicted the bottom to be around 84k when we eventually bottomed around 80.5k.

12. The MACD on the 1-day, 2-day, and 3-day chart for BTC is at historic low levels.

13. The last three times the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average, it was a great buying opportunity in this cycle. Historically, over 60% of the time, this has led to positive returns.

14. Interestingly, if you look at every time the Bitcoin price traded more than 3.5 standard deviations below its 200-day moving average, the only times this has happened were at the bear market bottom in November 2018 and during the COVID crash in March 2020.

15. If we look at the scenario where it traded more than 4 standard deviations below, this has only happened once before during the COVID crash. We touched a similar level on November 21st, with a less than 1% chance of occurrence, indicating an extremely rare and severe downturn, showing extreme fear in the market.

16. The LeaC indicator has given a buy signal on the 3-day chart for the first time since the FTX flash crash, which usually only occurs in a bear market or at a bottom.

17. The Total Market Cap is currently at the 200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average).

18. The Total Market Cap is currently sitting at both horizontal support and diagonal support levels.

On-Chain Analysis and Surrender Signs

19. The recent major sell-offs have not primarily come from long-term holders and/or miners, but from traders and short-term holders.

20. The percentage of Short-Term Holders in profit is at a 5-year low, never seen this low since 2019.

21. The supply of Short-Term Holders is at an all-time low.

22. The Short-Term Holders' Realized Profit to Loss Ratio has also hit a 5-year low, indicating the market is experiencing thorough Capitulation, especially from the perspective of short-term holders and traders.

23. Short-Term Holders' SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) is beginning to enter the Buy Zone.

24. Realized Losses are at their highest level since the Silicon Valley Bank collapse in 2023, signaling another phase of market capitulation.

25. The Puell Multiple is at a discount level (the Puell Multiple is the ratio of current miner revenue to the 365-day average), typically associated with a mid-term bottom.

26. Recent on-chain data shows that we have experienced the largest-ever exchange outflow. Looking back at the past four similar events, such fund flows typically mark the start of a bull market or the end of a bear market. In the following weeks or even months, the market often experiences a significant bullish rally.

27. Additionally, on-chain Realized Net Profit and Loss has dropped to its lowest level since the FDX collapse, indicating that market sentiment may have bottomed out, setting the stage for a potential rebound.

28. SOPR is preparing for an accumulation breakout. So far in this cycle, it has not reached levels associated with the overall top.

29. SOPR is still within the structure of a bull market cycle. Since 2023, this indicator has never entered the typical bear market territory but has consistently bounced around the 1 level.

Stablecoin and Derivatives Market

30. The Stablecoin market is in a super cycle, with its size continuously expanding over the past three years. This trend is a bullish signal for the market as the increase in stablecoins means that funds available for investors to buy Bitcoin and ETH on dips are also increasing.

31. The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) is currently at its widest gap since 2022, further indicating the potential buying power in the market.

32. The Stablecoin SSR Oscillation Index has hit its lowest level since 2017.

33. Looking at Bitcoin's holdings, the Bitfinex BTCUSD long position is currently in the buy zone, a situation consistent with the state seen during several mid-term bottoms in this cycle. Whales on Bitfinex are often seen as "smart money," and historical data shows they can often accurately judge market trends.

34. The market dominance of stablecoins is currently at a level that aligns with the Bitcoin bottoms in this cycle. The market share of USDT and USDC has surged, typically reflecting investor fear. Looking back at historical data, the past three times the dominance of USDT and USDC reached this level, the market was at a local mid-term bottom.

35. In recent weeks, the market has seen the largest-scale long liquidation since the FTX crash. This phenomenon is often seen as a "surrender signal," indicating that leveraged positions in the market have been significantly cleared out.

36. In terms of liquidation distribution, the current liquidation volume on the upside (short side) is significantly higher than on the downside (long side).

37. According to CoinGlass data, the current market has more short positions than long positions.

38. The long/short indicator reads 0.93, indicating that the market sentiment is in a state of heightened fear.

Whale Dynamics and Institutional Behavior

39. Rumor has it that an "OG" whale who sold $1.2 billion in BTC over the past few weeks has finally unloaded their position.

40. There have also been rumors that Tether transferred $1 billion directly from its treasury to a Bitfinex address, possibly for BTC purchases.

41. Some funds suffered significant losses on October 10th. If they now have to sell Bitcoin or Ethereum, this selling behavior is more forced than voluntary.

42. The Bgeometrics Demand Index is currently in the buy zone (The Bgeometrics Demand Index is an analytical tool mainly used to measure Bitcoin's demand level), with the last similar occurrence happening in September 2024, when the market was also at a midterm bottom.

43. Additionally, on-chain metrics such as the NVT (Network Value to Transactions) and NVTS (NVT Signal) are currently showing severely oversold conditions, historically associated with midterm bottoms.

44. The Bitcoin sentiment indicator "Fear and Greed Index" has currently reached a level of 10/100, the lowest value this cycle, indicating extreme fear in the market.

45. Sentiment on social media also shows a strong pessimistic tendency, with many KOLs sharing highly bearish Bitcoin price charts on CT (CryptoTwitter).

46. There are also many bearish market videos on YouTube.

47. A significant number of bearish tweets, articles, and blog posts are emerging.

48. Observing Bitcoin's traditional cycle top signals, currently none of the 30 signals have been triggered, indicating that the market has not yet reached the top zone.

Price Patterns and ETF Flows

49. Last week, the CME Bitcoin Futures $91,000 gap has been successfully filled.

50. The CME Ethereum Futures $2,800 gap has also been filled.

51. From a technical analysis perspective, there is a pattern known as the "Domed House and Three Peaks," which is often seen as a corrective pattern that is typically followed by a new bullish trend.

52. Some also believe that the market trend in 2025, including the current price volatility, might only be a range-bound phase laying the foundation for the next uptrend. Another notable pattern is the "Four Bases with Parabolic," with the current market possibly halfway through the fourth base stage. If this pattern holds, Bitcoin could experience a parabolic rise in the future, reaching a high of $150,000 to $200,000.

53. The Bitcoin-to-Stablecoin Reserve Ratio on the Binance exchange is currently at an all-time low level, which is seen as a strong bullish signal.

54. Looking back at historical data, after the end of the 2019 U.S. government shutdown, Bitcoin hit bottom within 4 days. This year's government shutdown ended in mid-November, and if the $80,500 on November 21 is the bottom, this bottoming time is very similar to the 9th day after the government reopened.

55. In the Bitcoin options market, the buying volume of put options is dominant.

56. At the same time, the Put Skew indicator continues to rise, reflecting extreme fear in the market. Additionally, the implied volatility of put options (Put IV) is significantly higher than the implied volatility of call options (Call IV).

57. It is worth noting that this week was also a record week for IBIT (the world's largest Bitcoin ETF) in terms of put option trading volume.

58. The maximum pain prices for Bitcoin options in late November and December are $102,000 and $99,000, respectively, well above the current market price.

59. The maximum pain price for ETH options is in June next year, at $4,300.

60. November 21 was the day with the highest historical trading volume for IBIT, further confirming the market capitulation view. Historical data shows that market capitulation is usually accompanied by very high trading volume, which is a process of rebalancing the forces between buyers and sellers.

61. In fact, not only did IBIT's volume reach a historic peak, if we were to account for the total trading volume of all BTC ETFs, this day would also be the highest in history.

62. The Bitcoin price found support around the ETF cost basis range (approximately $79,000 to $82,000), which also aligns with the realized price of the ETF.

63. Additionally, $80,200 (slightly below the recent low) is considered to be Bitcoin's true market average price. Multiple price indicators are overlapping in the range of $79,000 to $83,000, including the ETF cost basis, realized price, and market average price. This kind of price convergence is often seen as a support area.

64. When further analyzing Bitcoin's realized price distribution, it can be observed that the $83,000 to $85,000 price range is also a key support and resistance flip area. Therefore, Bitcoin is more likely to find a mid-term bottom in this price range.

65. November 21 also marked the historical peak in Hyperliquid BTC perpetual contract trading volume. This phenomenon aligns with the surge in ETF trading volume, indicating that the market may have gone through a mid-term capitulation phase. Capitulation usually accompanies the exhaustion of selling pressure and may also signal the initial recovery of market demand.

66. 98% of the current ETF's Assets Under Management (AUM) are held by diamond hands, with these funds primarily designed for long-term holding rather than short-term trading or speculation. Even amidst a recent 36% decline in the market, 98% of the ETF AUM remains unsold, indicating a strong long-term confidence in Bitcoin by ETF holders.

67. The proportion of Bitcoin supply held by ETF holders is continually increasing. Looking at data from the past two years, this proportion has already grown from 3% to 7.1% and could potentially rise to 15%, 20%, or even 25% in the future. This trend suggests that the Bitcoin market is undergoing the so-called 'IPO Moment.' In this stage, early whales (OGs) are gradually exiting, while passive inflows from ETFs continue to drive market accumulation. The currency supply of the fiat system far exceeds the amount of Bitcoin held by Bitcoin OGs. By definition, Bitcoin's supply is limited, whereas the funds available in fiat and ETF systems to purchase Bitcoin are almost limitless.

68. Ethereum (ETH) is facing a similar situation. Over the past few years, the proportion of ETH held by ETFs has also been steadily increasing. Regardless of market price fluctuations, this trend reflects institutional investors' bullish long-term outlook on crypto assets.

Market Indicator Analysis

69. On November 21, the trading volume on Binance and Coinbase even exceeded the levels of October 10, which was already an extremely active trading day. This suggests that the market may have gone through a full capitulation phase.

70. On Binance and Coinbase, Bitcoin's order book has shown a bullish tendency for the first time in weeks, at least in the short term, similar market conditions were also seen when Bitcoin bottomed in April 2025.

71. Looking at the funding rate, we see a negative value for the first time in weeks, indicating that market sentiment is still filled with fear. Many investors are choosing to short and believe that the price will further decline.

72. Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin has been trading at a discount on Coinbase, which has exerted continuous pressure on the price. However, since November 21, market sentiment has started to relax, and the price is gradually normalizing. Currently, Coinbase's discount seems to have bottomed out and is recovering to neutral levels. This could be another signal that Bitcoin's price is approaching a mid-term bottom.

73. Moreover, Bitcoin's RSI indicator relative to gold has dropped to a historical low in the bear market. Historical data shows that similar situations between Bitcoin and gold have occurred during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, the 2018 and 2015 global market bottoming phases, and during the 3AC, Luna, and FTX crashes. If you believe that the gap between Bitcoin and gold will eventually be filled, then the current market may provide support for a bullish outlook.

74. Looking at Open Interest (OI) data, we have just experienced the largest-scale cleansing of this cycle, with OI dropping from $370 billion to $290 billion, the fastest adjustment since the FTX crash.

75. Examining the altcoin Open Interest (OI), October 10 saw a large-scale washout in the altcoin market, and most assets' bubbles have been burst.

76. The assets' Net Asset Value (mNav) of DAT has dropped to slightly above or below 1. I believe this is a bullish signal as parts of the market previously considered to be in a bubble have now been cleaned out.

77. Some assets that were previously extremely overvalued, such as MSTR's mNav, have now reverted to levels seen during the FTX crash. Historically, these levels are often associated with the market's mid-term bottom.

78. Similarly, Metaplanet's mNav once reached as high as 23, but has now dropped to 0.95. This adjustment indicates the market is returning to rationality. Nevertheless, Meta Planet is still borrowing funds through its Bitcoin position to purchase more Bitcoin, demonstrating there is still some buying demand in the market.

79. Likewise, Ethereum's mNav has also experienced a significant downturn, further proving that the market's bubble has deflated. Currently, mNav below 1 cannot be used as a reason to bearish the market. Although some may think this will prompt some DAT to sell Bitcoin or Ethereum to buy back stocks, from a game theory perspective, those looking to establish a leading position in the industry know very well that short-term trading behavior will harm their long-term reputation. They are more inclined to gain market recognition through long-term holding.

80. Although the Bitcoin lending industry is still in its early stages, it is gradually developing under the impetus of MSTR. I believe this trend will eventually demonstrate exponential growth, allowing MSTR to accumulate Bitcoin in a more sustainable manner.

81. Bitcoin's social risk indicator is zero, indicating that retail investors have not yet entered the market on a large scale. While some may attribute this to retail investors lacking funds, I believe this is precisely why Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market have not experienced a parabolic rise. Historically, this phenomenon is usually triggered by a large influx of retail investors into the market. In this cycle, we have not yet seen this scenario, indicating that the current cycle is primarily driven by DAT and institutions. I believe retailers will return to the market in the future at a larger scale, so holding now is a wise choice.

Macroeconomic and Political Factors

82. From a macroeconomic perspective, the Federal Reserve has begun to cut interest rates, although the current inflation rate remains above the 2% target level. We need to recognize that the low volatility and slow trend of this cycle are largely due to the extremely tight macroeconomic environment currently. This is one of the most challenging macro backgrounds in Bitcoin's history and a significant reason for the market's difficult performance. At the beginning of this cycle, the interest rate was 5.5%, and it is still above 4% now, showing that the current macroeconomic conditions are still relatively tight. In past cryptocurrency cycles, interest rates were usually between 0% and 2.5%, indicating relatively loose conditions. Even in such a tight environment, Bitcoin's rise from $15,000 to $125,000 is already a significant achievement.

83. The probability of a rate cut in December has surged from last week's 30% to 81%, which is usually seen as a positive development for risk assets including Bitcoin.

84. The daily trading volume of the S&P 500 Index reached its highest level since April last week. Historical data indicates that such a surge in trading volume is often associated with a local or midterm market bottom. The reason for this observation is that for Bitcoin's price to continue rising, ideally the stock market should also maintain its upward momentum.

85. Similarly, the daily trading volume of the Nasdaq 100 Index also reached its highest level since April last week. Discussions during a multi-event on November 21 highlighted this timing as a potential midterm market bottom, with such a spike in volume typically associated with market bottoms.

86. The weekly trading volume of the S&P 500 Index is at its third highest level since 2022.

87. The weekly trading volume of the Nasdaq 100 Index is also at its third highest level since 2022.

88. The Nasdaq 100 Index found support at the 100-day moving average and exhibited a bullish cross signal with the MACD indicator.

89. The S&P 500's put options trading volume reached its second highest level in history. Based on historical data, this scenario has led to positive price performance 100% of the time a month later.

90. Last week, the S&P 500 Index opened more than 1% higher, but closed the day in negative territory. Historical data shows that in 86% of such cases, prices have risen three weeks to a month later.

91. The market is currently in a unique environment. Over the past four weeks, the VIX index has been steadily rising, yet the S&P 500 Index remains within 5% of its all-time high. Historical data suggests that when this situation occurs, there is an 80% probability of a price increase six months later and a high 93% probability of an increase one year later.

92. The RSI indicator of the SPX dropped below 35 for the first time in seven months. Historical data indicates that in similar situations, there is a 93% probability of a price increase three months later, 85% six months later, and 78% one year later.

93. When the SPX initially falls below the 50-day moving average, historical records show that three months, six months, and nine months later, there is a 71% probability of price increase.

94. For the Nasdaq, when the McClellan Oscillator falls below 62 (The McClellan Oscillator is a technical indicator used to analyze market breadth, calculated by smoothing the difference between the daily number of advancing stocks and declining stocks to reflect overall market momentum.), historical data shows that in most cases, prices will rise in the following week to a month.

95. The AAI Bull/Bear Indicator is currently below -12, and historical data shows that on the past three occurrences of this happening, prices have increased by 100% after two months, three months, six months, nine months, and one year.

96. On November 21st, the trading volume of SPXU (3x Bear S&P 500 ETF) exceeded $1 billion. Historical data shows that whenever this occurs, the market price will rise one month later.

97. Last week, the proportion of oversold stocks saw a significant increase, which is typically associated with a local or mid-term market bottom.

98. The S&P 500's put/call ratio has consecutively exceeded 0.7 for two days. Historical data shows that in this scenario, market prices have increased by 100% two months later.

99. The price of Bitcoin is highly correlated with the growth of the global M2 money supply. Historically, Bitcoin's rapid price surges in 2017 and 2021 were accompanied by parabolic growth in M2. In contrast, in the current cycle, Bitcoin's gradual price rise aligns with the modest trend in M2 growth. If the M2 growth rate accelerates in the future, Bitcoin's price could experience another rapid surge. From a broader historical perspective, so-called "market bubbles" often last longer than people expect. Comparisons with the prosperity of the 1920s, the gold rush of the late 1970s, the Japanese asset price bubble, and the dot-com bubble, combined with the performance of the Nasdaq 100 index since October 2022, suggest that there is still significant upside potential in the market.

100. The S&P 500 has never reached a global top when the ISM Manufacturing Index is below 50. The current ISM index is around 48, leading many to speculate that the business cycle may be entering an expansion phase, further driving up stock and risk asset (such as Bitcoin) prices.

101. In terms of the Mega 7 indicator, the current market performance shows that the resistance level is transitioning into a support level. If the Mega 7 is considered a barometer of the market, no abnormal signals are currently being displayed. In fact, since 2015, there have been several instances of breaking past previous highs followed by a support retest within four months, and the market is currently going through a similar pattern. Therefore, the current market is not in an abnormal or bearish state, and at least for now, it is still maintaining a healthy uptrend.

102. There is a correlation between Bitcoin's price and the global M2 money supply growth rate. Historically, Bitcoin's rapid surges in 2017 and 2021 were closely tied to the parabolic growth of M2. In the current cycle, Bitcoin's gradual price increase aligns with the stable trend in M2 growth. If the M2 growth rate accelerates in the future, Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market may experience another rapid surge. There are already some signs indicating that M2 growth is gaining momentum, but to achieve parabolic price growth, an acceleration in M2 growth is key.

103. If the money supply continues to expand, Bitcoin's price may gradually catch up with this trend and rise further.

104. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is a significant factor influencing cryptocurrency prices, and currently, the DXY is at a key resistance level that has acted as both resistance and support since 2015. Between 2015 and 2020, it primarily served as a resistance level; however, between 2022 and 2024, it functioned as a support level multiple times. In early 2025, the DXY broke below this area and is now retesting this resistance level from below. Generally, when the DXY is at a resistance level, it is an ideal time to buy risk assets, such as cryptocurrencies.

105. The Federal Reserve plans to end quantitative tightening (QT) in December 2025, a policy shift considered favorable for risk assets, including Bitcoin. While the policy change will not take effect immediately, overall, quantitative easing (QE) typically helps drive cryptocurrency price increases, while quantitative tightening could lead the market into a bearish phase. Historical data shows that during the Fed's balance sheet expansion in 2013, the cryptocurrency market performed strongly, whereas in 2018 during the balance sheet reduction, the cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn. In 2020 and 2021, the Fed rapidly expanded its balance sheet, coinciding with the Bitcoin bull run. However, in 2022, as the Fed began reducing its balance sheet, both the stock and cryptocurrency markets entered a bear market.

106. Many market analysts predict that in 2026 some form of Quantitative Easing (QE) or implicit QE may make a comeback, and the Fed may once again expand its balance sheet. Although the scale of this expansion may not be as huge as the one after the pandemic, this policy is still believed to have a certain positive effect on the markets. Looking back, the last time the Fed announced quantitative tightening, the market went through the so-called 'QT-QE Inflection Cleansing'. At that time, the price of Bitcoin initially dropped but later found support around $6,000 (discounting the pandemic-induced crash). With the slowing pace of QT and the start of QE, the price of Bitcoin subsequently saw a wave of increase.

107. There is a theory that the Fed announcing the end of quantitative tightening may lead to a similar 'QT-QE Inflection Cleansing'. During this period, the market may first go through a period of volatility, and once some form of Quantitative Easing (QE) is initiated, the price of Bitcoin may once again see a strong performance. This scenario may repeat itself.

108. From a higher-level political and administrative perspective, the U.S. government is currently fully supporting the development of Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, ETFs, and stablecoins. It can be said that this is one of the most crypto-friendly governments in history, and this policy environment is expected to continue, providing long-term bullish support for the cryptocurrency market.

109. The Trump administration aims to drive economic growth to reduce debt and has criticized the Fed's monetary policy as being too tight. Overall, the Trump administration tends to pursue a more lenient economic policy.

110. Additionally, the Trump administration is actively supporting the development of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) industry, considering it a strategic national priority for the U.S. For example, the U.S. has initiated the Genesis mission, a plan aimed at further advancing the AI industry, the importance and urgency of which can be compared to the Manhattan Project (nuclear weapons development).

111. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent has hinted in multiple interviews that there may be a relaxation of bank regulations to increase lending to key industries. This may not only prepare for future rate cuts but also further increase the money supply. He emphasized the importance of relaxing bank regulations and reducing capital requirements, similar advocacy also echoed in the statements of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) chair.

112. The Trump administration is committed to reducing housing costs to unlock trillions of dollars of home equity into the economy and the market. This is one of the key focuses of the White House at the moment, aiming to transform this massive wealth into economic vitality.

113. The Trump family's interests are highly aligned with this policy goal. They have significant investments in the cryptocurrency space, including Trump meme coin and Decentralized Finance (DeFi) projects.

114. The Trump administration is also discussing issuing a $2,000 stimulus check to every individual, especially low-income and middle-income groups. Looking back at 2020, the $500 or $600 checks had a noticeable impact on asset prices. If this policy is implemented, a $2,000 stimulus check would be highly favorable for asset prices, especially the cryptocurrency market. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has suggested that this may come in the form of a tax rebate, but regardless of the form, it would be very beneficial for the market.

115. China is currently taking measures to alleviate deflationary pressures, which have been affecting its economy for years. Historically, when China's Economic Pressure Index reaches high levels, it is usually accompanied by some form of monetary easing policy.

116. Japan has announced an economic stimulus plan totaling $135 billion, which could further boost global market liquidity and asset prices.

Conclusion and Risks

· While there are many bullish signals in the market, we also need to be mindful of potential risks. The four major risks the market currently faces include:

1. The Mega 7 AI bubble in the stock market may suddenly burst

2. Bitcoin whales may intensify selling pressure

3. A strengthening U.S. dollar may put pressure on risk assets

4. A reversal in the business cycle may occur, while liquidity may deteriorate further

I do not subscribe to the view that the market cycle is only four years, I believe this cycle may extend to four and a half years or even five years, and may continue until 2026.