The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 3 a.m. on Thursday, with the market expecting a 25 basis point rate cut.

According to ChainCatche and Golden Ten Data, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 03:00 on Thursday. The market expects a rate cut of 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. There is an unusual split within the FOMC, with some voting members possibly opposing further rate cuts. Due to the government shutdown, key data for October is missing, so changes to the SEP and dot plot are expected to be limited. In terms of liquidity, the market is watching whether a "Reserve Management Purchase Program" (RMP) will be introduced after the end of quantitative tightening. Bank of America predicts that about $4.5 billion in short-term US Treasuries may be purchased monthly starting in January; if MBS reinvestment is included, the scale could reach about $6 billion. If the RMP is announced, the focus of the meeting may shift to the balance sheet rather than the interest rate path.