Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Broken Amid Elongated Bull Market Cycle, Says Investment Giant Bernstein: Report

Investment giant Bernstein believes Bitcoin ( BTC ) will print new all-time highs next year, breaking out of an historic pattern.

Analysts at the Wall Street research firm say Bitcoin is in an extended bull market, overriding concerns that the top crypto asset has entered a bearish phase based on the four-year cycle theory, according to a research note shared on X by Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at Vaneck.

Bitcoin’s four-year halving schedule and large price drawdowns that historically happened once every four years have given the impression that the benchmark cryptocurrency follows a four-year cycle.

“Bernstein: ‘In view of recent market correction, we believe, the Bitcoin cycle has broken the four-year pattern (cycle peaking every four years) and is now in an elongated bull-cycle with more sticky institutional buying offsetting any retail panic selling. Despite a ~30% Bitcoin correction, we have seen less than 5% outflows via ETFs (exchange-traded funds).

We are moving our 2026E (estimated) Bitcoin price target to $150,000, with the cycle potentially peaking in 2027E at $200,000. Our long term 2033E Bitcoin price target remains ~$1,000,000.”

Other notable crypto investors are also predicting the end of the apparent four-cycle model.

In a new interview on Fox Business, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood says that the greater adoption of Bitcoin will likely prevent the historic collapses in value that occurred in prior cycles.

“We think the four-year cycle is going to be disrupted. And what I mean by that is Bitcoin regularly dropped 75% to 90% in its early days. The volatility is going down. It’s down about 30%, and I think there’s a fear of the four-year cycle. We think that the move by institutions into this new asset class is going to prevent much more of a decline. We may have seen the low a couple of weeks ago.”

Crypto investment giant Grayscale issued a new report last week predicting Bitcoin will likely defy the cyclical thesis and surge in 2026.

Bitcoin is trading for $92,969 at time of writing, up 2.4% in the last 24 hours.

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