- Polymarket assigns the highest odds to Bitcoin ending 2025 near the $80,000 level range.
- Market pricing suggests consolidation, with traders discounting extreme upside or downside.
- Technical indicators show weak momentum, aligning with range-bound year-end expectations.
Polymarket traders are assigning Bitcoin its strongest odds of ending 2025 near $80,000. The forecast shows trading activity on Polymarket, where traders predict year-end Bitcoin outcomes during December 2025. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $86,957 as traders considered recent price swings, the current sideways movement, and changing technical signals.
Polymarket Odds Outline Traders’ 2025 BTC Expectations
Based on Polymarket data, traders mostly expect Bitcoin to finish 2025 near $80,000. That price level has a 30% probability, making it the most widely expected outcome among the available options. By comparison, odds for Bitcoin finishing above $96,000 stand at 26%, showing reduced confidence in stronger upside scenarios.
However, expectations thin out sharply at more extreme levels. Polymarket assigns just a 1% probability to Bitcoin ending 2025 near $120,000. At the same time, traders see only a 2% chance that Bitcoin will fall below $60,000 by the end of the year, suggesting they don’t expect a major drop.
Overall, these odds show that traders are expecting calm price behavior rather than big moves up or down before year-end. Most expectations sit in the middle, with little confidence in either a strong rally or a sharp crash. This reflects how the market currently views Bitcoin as relatively stable in the longer term.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading at $86,957.02, up 0.59% on the day. This puts the price above the most likely $80,000 level. Still, traders remain unsure about whether Bitcoin can hold higher prices as late 2025 approaches.
Current Market Data Shows Consolidation After Volatility
Beyond Polymarket predictions, current market data shows where Bitcoin stands right now. Its total market value is about $1.73 trillion, up 0.6% during the session. Trading activity has picked up, with $56.85 billion traded in the last 24 hours, a 28.8% jump.
Bitcoin’s fully diluted value is at $1.82 trillion. About 19.96 million BTC are currently in circulation, which is nearly the full supply, while the maximum remains capped at 21 million coins.
The volume-to-market-cap ratio is 3.28%, showing there’s plenty of trading happening compared to Bitcoin’s size. Even so, the price hasn’t shown a strong move in either direction despite the higher activity.
In late October, Bitcoin topped out near $120,000 before starting a steady decline. Throughout November, prices kept making lower highs and lower lows. By early December, it briefly fell into the $85,000–$86,000 range.
Since then, Bitcoin has been moving sideways. This suggests selling pressure has eased, but buyers haven’t taken full control yet. As a result, the price remains stuck in a range, matching Polymarket’s mid-range expectations.
Related: Polymarket Traders Back Hassett as Trump’s Fed Favorite
Support and Resistance Zones
Technical indicators further contextualize current price behavior. Immediate support is between $85,000 and $86,000, where buyers previously stepped in. Below that zone, major support is near $80,000, matching Polymarket’s most probable year-end outcome.
On the upside, near-term resistance is between $90,000 and $92,000. Higher resistance is near the $100,000 level. Bitcoin is trading below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, at approximately $88,600 and $89,600.
Also, in November, the 50-day moving average fell below the 200-day moving average. This “death cross” happened as selling pressure picked up. Since then, price bounces have been weak, showing that traders are still being cautious.
Momentum indicators also show similarities. The 14-day RSI is at 41.29, which is below the neutral 50 level but is showing an upward trend. The MACD is showing a bearish signal with the MACD line at –1,924.89 below the signal line at –1,808.81. The shrinking negative histogram suggests that the downward momentum is easing. This points to consolidation rather than a full trend reversal.
Meanwhile, looking at price action, indicators, and Polymarket predictions together, the picture is consistent. Traders are mostly expecting Bitcoin to hover around $80,000, while keeping an eye on whether it can hold above $85,000 during this consolidation phase.
