Institutions: If the unemployment rate rises by 0.1% per month, the Fed's room for interest rate cuts is underestimated.

in November, the US inflation rate was far below economists' forecasts, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose that month. Due to information distortion and incompleteness caused by the 43-day federal government shutdown, investors have been reluctant to over-interpret this data. Michael Lorizio, Head of US Rates and Mortgage Trading at Manulife Investment Management, said: "Even taking this into account, it highlights that the current inflation data has very limited room for a significant upside surprise. If the labor market continues on its current trajectory, with the unemployment rate rising by 0.1 percentage points per month, I think the potential for further rate cuts next year may be somewhat underestimated."