Macroeconomic Distortion, Liquidity Restructuring, and the Repricing of Real Yields

In an "Unreliable World," How Do We Understand Safe Assets and the Position of R2?

I. When Macroeconomic Data Becomes Distorted, the Real Problems for the Market Are Just Beginning

In November, the US unadjusted CPI year-on-year recorded 2.7%, significantly lower than the previous value of 3.0% and the market expectation of 3.1%.

On the surface, this is an "ideal data point indicating significant inflation decline and opening up room for rate cuts."

But the issue is: This is not data that can be unconditionally trusted.

On December 19, New York Fed President and permanent FOMC voting member John Williams actually gave a clear hint: the 2.7% year-on-year CPI in November was affected by "technical factors," the current policy rate of 3.5%–3.75% is in a favorable position, there is no need to rush further rate cuts, and it is necessary to wait for December data to verify the true trend of inflation.

This is a very typical and important signal: not denying the data itself, but denying its guiding significance for policy paths.

Against the backdrop of the US government shutdown in October, using earlier months' data to "extrapolate" the missing period and assuming zero growth is itself a strong technical assumption. This approach may smooth the inflation path in the short term, but it is hard to convince:

• Fed officials who still insist on independent judgment
• Even harder to convince market participants who truly understand the structure of inflation

What does this mean?

When macro data is technically "modified," policy becomes even more cautious. In the absence of sufficiently credible verification, maintaining unchanged interest rates is often the higher probability choice.

Macroeconomics has not become simpler, it has just become more unreliable.

II. Geopolitical Risks Are Once Again Becoming an "Inflation Variable," No Longer Just Noise

If data distortion affects the credibility of policy judgment, then geopolitical conflict affects the structure of inflation itself.

Recently, the US has continued to intensify its blockade against Venezuela, having seized a third tanker carrying Venezuelan crude oil, even though the tanker was flying the flag of a Panamanian state-owned enterprise. This action has substantially reduced Venezuela's outbound vessels and has begun to impact its fiscal situation.

The US's intention is not complicated: to besiege the Maduro regime through sustained fiscal pressure.

At the same time, however, the market is reassessing another, more dangerous risk line: multiple sources indicate that Israel is evaluating the possibility of another strike on Iran, citing that Iran's monthly missile production may have reached 3,000 units.

In the previous round of Israel-Iran conflict, Iran broke through Israel's air defense system with a large-scale missile counterattack, ultimately forcing the US to intervene directly and deploy B-2 bombers to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, which temporarily de-escalated the conflict.

If this time Israel chooses to launch a surprise attack without declaration, Iran will most likely retaliate intensely with missiles. Even if its stockpile is lower than last time, it is still enough to inflict real damage on Israel, thereby forcing the US to intervene deeply again.

This would trigger a series of chain reactions:

• The Middle East remains the core area of the petrodollar system
• Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and the Suez Canal will rise significantly
• Even under the macro narrative of "oversupply," crude oil prices may still rebound sharply
• Imported inflation re-enters the global price system, affecting the US inflation path

In this environment, the intensity of the US blockade against Venezuela may instead be forced to adjust, and the geopolitical landscape will enter a new state of uncertainty.

The macro world is shifting from algorithm-driven optimistic expectations back to a risk-driven real structure.

III. In Such an Environment, What Constitutes Truly "Valid" Returns?

When data credibility declines, geopolitical risks return, and the path of monetary policy is highly uncertain, the core issues the market focuses on have changed.

It's no longer: "Can we cut rates one more time?"

But rather:

• Which returns do not depend on policy direction
• Which cash flows do not depend on secondary market liquidity
• Which assets remain valid in a high interest rate + high uncertainty environment

The answer is not new; it has long existed in the real world:

• Short-duration US Treasury bonds
• Credit assets with clear cash flow paths
• Trade and consumer finance assets with clear structure and defined terms

What is truly scarce is not these assets themselves, but how to bring them on-chain in a transparent, verifiable, and executable way.

IV. The Role of R2: Not to Predict the World, but to Adapt to It

What R2 does is to provide a more certain return structure during a period of policy swings, geopolitical instability, and data distortion:

• Not dependent on whether rate cuts happen
• Not creating the illusion of secondary market liquidity
• Not promising inexplicable sources of returns

R2 focuses on returns that already exist in the real world:

• Government bonds and credit assets with clear terms
• Traceable, clearable cash flows
• Return structures that are valid in a high interest rate environment

When CPI is technically distorted, when inflation is once again influenced by geopolitical variables, and when monetary policy has to act cautiously, the importance of real returns is amplified, not diminished.

Final Words: From "Betting Right Once" to "Long-Term Validity"

The macro world is undergoing a key turning point:

• Data is no longer naturally trustworthy
• Risks are no longer distant
• Policy is no longer one-way

In such an environment, what truly matters is no longer "betting on the right direction once," but building a return structure that remains valid under most macro scenarios.

The goal of R2 is not to predict how the world will change, but to ensure: No matter how the world changes, users know exactly what their funds are doing, where returns come from, and how risks are constrained. This is the truly scarce capability for the next stage.