Bitcoin Holds Ground as CME FedWatch Signals 17.7% Chance of January 2026 25bps Rate Cut; 46.7% Odds of Holding into March

As of the latest FedWatch snapshot, markets price a 25bp rate cut in January at 17.7%, with an 82.3% probability of no change. Through March, odds show 46.7% for no move, 45.6% for a cumulative 25bp cut, and 7.7% for a 50bp shift. The next FOMC meetings are January 28, 2026 and March 18, 2026.

These macro odds shape the crypto markets and risk sentiment. A higher likelihood of easing tends to improve liquidity for Bitcoin and other leading tokens, while tighter policy signals can pressure risk assets. Traders will monitor macro data and FOMC communication for directional clues.

Investors should maintain disciplined risk management as the FOMC cadence unfolds; update models with new FedWatch inputs and seek high-conviction positions that align with evolving liquidity conditions in crypto.