Trump Confirms Strike on Venezuela, Polymarket Faces "Settlement Dispute" Due to Rule Update

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on December 26, Trump publicly stated in an interview that the US had "destroyed" a key facility inside Venezuela.

As a result of this news, the probability for the Polymarket market "Will there be a military conflict between the US and Venezuela before the end of 2025" surged from 2.3% to 28% yesterday, and even triggered settlement. Mainstream media such as CNN subsequently reported that the operation was actually a drone strike carried out by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). However, this settlement result was later appealed.

Today, Polymarket updated its rules, stating that both parties in a military conflict must be armed forces, and actions by non-military intelligence agencies (such as the CIA) do not meet the settlement criteria. This rule update caused the market probability to plummet from 28% to 5% within 12 hours, sparking community controversy.