Fed’s Paulson: Job market has been bending not breaking

Speaking ahead of the 2026 Allied Social Science Associations Annual Meeting on Saturday, Philadelphia Federal Reserve (Fed) President Anna Paulson noted that “job market has been bending not breaking.”

Additional quotes

Labor market tends to be a clearer signal than GDP data.
Possible asset liquidation could lead to strong growth and weak job creation.
Tariff price adjustments likely complete over next six months.
Baseline outlook for economy is pretty benign.
I expect to see inflation moderate and job market stabilize with GDP around 2%.
Sees labor market risks as elevated
Federal Reserve policy acting to reduce inflation.
State of job market has supported Fed easing campaign.
Tariffs are a key factor in keeping inflation above target.
Inflation likely returns to normal over next year.

Market reaction

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is holding modest gains near 98.50, at the time of writing.