Polymarket "No" bets on "Christ will not return" offer a 5.5% annualized return, outperforming US Treasuries

According to Odaily, a contract on the prediction market Polymarket regarding "whether Jesus Christ will return to Earth in 2025" attracted approximately $3.3 million in participation in 2025. As the event was ultimately ruled "No," those who bet on "will not happen" at the April peak achieved an annualized return of about 5.5%, outperforming the yield of U.S. Treasury bonds during the same period. The report noted that the contract once maintained a probability of over 3% for the "Second Coming," reflecting the pricing characteristics of prediction markets where sentiment, belief, and speculation are intertwined.

Bloomberg also pointed out that while similar contracts have increased attention to prediction markets, they have also sparked academic controversy. Some scholars believe that such highly entertaining or symbolic events may weaken the informational value of prediction markets in serious public issues. As the contract is relaunched for the 2026 version, the current market still assigns about a 2% probability to the event, reflecting the ongoing appeal of prediction markets for speculative capital under the narrative of "low probability, high return." (Bloomberg)