Polymarket trader "beachboy4" lost over $2 million in 35 days

PANews reported on January 5 that, according to tracking and analysis by Lookonchain, a trader named "beachboy4" made 53 prediction trades on Polymarket within 35 days. Despite a win rate of 51% (winning 27 trades), he ultimately lost over $2 million. His largest single profit was $936,000, while his largest single loss reached $1.58 million. On average, each trade involved a bet of about $400,000, indicating high-risk behavior.

This address bought into the "consensus direction" in multiple trades at high prices ranging from 0.51 to 0.67, creating an extremely poor odds structure of "limited upside + full downside." He did not use stop-loss, hedging, or early profit-taking features, resulting in most losing positions going to zero. In addition, this trader frequently made all-in bets on "high-confidence" events in highly transparent and efficient markets, such as NBA or popular football teams. The eventual losses were not due to bad luck, but rather to a structurally unbalanced strategy.

Lookonchain summarized five practical lessons: avoid entering at high prices, control single-trade risk, take profits and cut losses in a timely manner, evaluate risk-reward ratios, and avoid markets where you have no edge.