A major whale on Polymarket lost over $2 million in 35 days

BlockBeats News, January 5, according to monitoring by lookonchain, a trader named "beachboy4" on Polymarket lost over $2 million in just 35 days, and their trading records have recently attracted community attention.

Data shows that this account participated in a total of 53 prediction events within 35 days, winning 27 times, with a win rate of about 51%. The largest single profit was approximately $936,000, but the largest single loss reached as high as $1.58 million. On average, about $400,000 was wagered on each event, with the highest single bet also reaching $1.58 million.

Analysis indicates that the core issue with this account lies in its misunderstanding of Polymarket's pricing logic. In the largest loss trade, the account bought "Liverpool to win (YES)" at a price of 0.66, which does not mean "Liverpool is very likely to win," but rather means "you are confident the real probability is higher than 66%." However, this trader has long treated Polymarket as a binary sports betting platform, rather than a market for probability and pricing games.

Further observation reveals that the account repeatedly chased high consensus prices in the 0.51–0.67 range, forming a typical capped return and full-loss risk structure: the upside is limited (+50% to +90%), but the downside is -100%. At the same time, they almost never set stop-losses, close positions early, or hedge; most losing positions were held all the way to zero.

In addition, the account exhibits obvious repetitive heavy betting behavior, frequently making large unilateral bets in highly public and efficiently priced markets such as NBA and popular football teams. "High certainty" does not equal "positive expected value," ultimately leading to results that are not a matter of luck, but of structurally inevitable losses.