Morgan Stanley Bullish on Gold to $4,800, Says Rate Cut Cycle and Global Risks Will Sustain Gold Bull Market

Gold prices are expected to climb to new record highs by the end of this year. Morgan Stanley forecasts that by the fourth quarter of 2026, gold prices will reach $4,800 per ounce, as declining interest rates, central bank gold purchases, and ongoing geopolitical risks continue to drive demand for this traditional safe-haven asset.

In a research report dated January 5, the bank stated that the current rally in precious metals is being supported by a combination of macroeconomic and policy shifts, including the anticipated rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve, changes in Fed leadership, and continued buying by central banks and investment funds.

Gold has already experienced a historic rally, with spot gold surging by more than 64% throughout 2025, marking the strongest annual performance since 1979.

Renewed Safe-Haven Demand

This week, gold prices spiked again after the US military took control of Venezuelan leader Maduro, an action that heightened geopolitical uncertainty in the energy and financial markets. Analysts noted that such unexpected events have reactivated safe-haven buying at a time when many investors had already adopted a defensive stance.

“The situation around Venezuela has clearly reignited safe-haven demand, but this is layered on top of existing concerns about geopolitics, energy supply, and monetary policy,” said Alexander Zumpfe, a precious metals trader at Heraeus Germany.

Investors typically turn to gold during periods of economic and political tension because this precious metal tends to perform well in low interest rate environments, when the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets decreases.

Morgan Stanley stated in its report that the recent events in Venezuela could reinforce gold's appeal as a store of value, although the bank did not formally include these developments as a basis for its $4,800 forecast.

JPMorgan has also recently raised its gold price outlook, predicting that gold will reach $5,000 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, with a long-term target of $6,000.

“Although this gold rally has not been and will not be linear, we believe the trend driving the repricing of gold higher is not yet exhausted,” Natasha Kaneva, Global Head of Commodities Strategy at JPMorgan, stated in a report dated December 18, 2025, noting that trade uncertainty and ongoing geopolitical risks are fueling safe-haven demand and prompting central banks and investors to continue diversifying into gold.

Analysts from ING also remain optimistic about gold’s further upside. In a report dated January 6, the bank noted that central bank gold purchases and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts are supporting the precious metal.

Fed Policy and Dollar Outlook Are Key Drivers

Morgan Stanley's latest forecast is a significant upward revision from its previous outlook. In October 2025, the bank raised its 2026 gold forecast to $4,400 per ounce, citing expectations of US rate cuts, a weakening dollar, and strong institutional capital inflows.

“Investors see gold not only as a tool to hedge against inflation but also as a barometer for everything from central bank policy to geopolitical risks,” said Amy Gower, Metals & Mining Commodities Strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a report last October. “We expect further upside potential for gold, driven by a weaker dollar, robust ETF inflows, continued central bank purchases, and a backdrop of uncertainty supporting demand for this safe-haven asset.”

The share of gold in global central bank reserves has also recently surpassed that of US Treasuries for the first time since 1996, which Morgan Stanley described as a “strong signal” of investor confidence in the long-term value of the precious metal.

Gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recorded record capital inflows, reflecting growing interest from both institutional and retail investors.

“Even non-professional buyers, or retail investors, have joined the gold-buying spree,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a report last October, adding that expectations for a weaker dollar and a broader trend of moving away from dollar-denominated assets have further supported gold demand.

The dollar fell by about 9% throughout 2025, marking its weakest annual performance since 2017.

Silver and Copper Also in Focus

Although gold remains Morgan Stanley’s top commodity pick, the bank also emphasized the strong performance of other metal markets.

For silver, analysts noted that 2025 marks a peak period of structural supply shortages, with new export licensing requirements in China adding to upside risks. Driven by industrial demand, investment inflows, and tight supply, silver soared by 147% last year, setting the strongest annual gain on record.

“Investor interest remains strong as silver-backed ETFs continue to attract capital inflows,” ING analysts stated in a recent report, describing the outlook for 2026 as “positive”, supported by robust industrial demand from solar panels and battery technology, as well as ongoing investment inflows.

In base metals, Morgan Stanley said it is bullish on aluminum and copper, both of which face continued supply constraints amid rising demand. Aluminum supply remains tight outside Indonesia, while signs of renewed US procurement have pushed prices higher.

Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) also rose sharply, with three-month copper reaching a record high of $13,387.50 per ton this week. Morgan Stanley noted that US import demand and ongoing mine supply disruptions are keeping the global market tight as it heads into 2026.

Nickel is another standout performer, with Morgan Stanley stating that supply disruption risks in Indonesia are supporting prices, but also warning that much of the risk may have already been priced in by the market.