RUB: Russian oil shipments drop significantly, causing a steep decline in revenue – Commerzbank

Significant Decline in Russian Oil Exports Impacts Economy

Russia has experienced a notable drop in oil exports, which is putting pressure on both its export earnings and government budget. Over the four weeks leading up to January 4, 2026, the country exported 3.43 million barrels of oil per day—approximately 440,000 barrels fewer than in the previous period ending December 21, 2025. According to Tatha Ghose, a foreign exchange analyst at Commerzbank, Moscow’s weekly export revenues averaged $960 million, marking a 10% decrease compared to the earlier timeframe.

Urals Crude Falls Below $35 per Barrel Following US Sanctions

Bloomberg’s recent analysis features a revealing chart that tracks oil export sales from different Russian regions. The data shows that total export revenues have plummeted in recent weeks, reaching lows not seen since the introduction of the oil price cap in 2022. This sharp decline is largely attributed to new US sanctions targeting major Russian oil companies. Currently, Urals crude is trading at less than $35 per barrel in both the Baltic and Black Sea markets—roughly 60% of its value as of October 1, 2025.

Current Account Figures and Economic Slowdown

Although Russia’s current account appeared to improve slightly in the third quarter of last year, this improvement reflects earlier conditions and may not accurately represent the present situation. The impact of falling oil revenues on the current account remains uncertain, especially as the country’s GDP growth has slowed dramatically to just 0.1% year-on-year in November 2025—the lowest rate for the year. This economic slowdown could actually help maintain the surplus by reducing demand for imports.

Weaker Rouble Expected Amid Policy Changes

Due to deteriorating economic fundamentals, the USD/RUB exchange rate has risen noticeably over the past month. To preserve its reserves, the Central Bank of Russia plans to cut its daily foreign exchange sales to RUB 4.6 billion during the first half of 2026, down from RUB 8.9 billion per day in the second half of 2025. With lower oil revenues, reduced FX interventions, and decreased investments from the National Wealth Fund, the rouble is likely to face further depreciation throughout 2026.