Trump Tariff Decision May Be Announced by Supreme Court on Friday: Key Information for Investors

Supreme Court Set to Decide on Trump-Era Tariffs

The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to issue a decision regarding tariffs implemented by former President Donald Trump as soon as Friday, January 9. This ruling could have significant consequences for various industries and stocks. Below, we explore the key issues at play and which sectors may be most affected.

Background on the Tariff Case

Since assuming office in January 2025, President Trump has relied on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to justify the imposition of tariffs on foreign nations. These tariffs have been a major topic of discussion in financial circles over the past year, and the Supreme Court’s upcoming decision could influence market trends as 2026 begins.

The justices are returning from a recess and have scheduled an Opinion Day for Friday, meaning a public announcement on the tariffs could come as early as 10 a.m. ET. However, the decision could also be delayed.

With a 6-3 conservative majority, the Supreme Court has fast-tracked this case, indicating a verdict will likely be reached early in the current session rather than later in the summer.

Legal Arguments and Possible Outcomes

During oral arguments in November, the focus was on the 1977 IEEPA statute, which had historically addressed national security concerns but had not previously been used to levy tariffs on established trading partners.

Opponents of the tariffs argue that no previous president has used the IEEPA for this purpose, viewing it as an overextension of executive authority and an encroachment on Congressional powers.

The Peterson Institute for International Economics has drawn parallels between this case and a recent Supreme Court decision regarding troops in Chicago, where the court ruled 6-3 against the expansion of executive power. Since the Constitution assigns Congress the authority to tax and regulate tariffs, the Institute suggests the court may rule against Trump based on this precedent.

The Supreme Court could issue a comprehensive ruling or a more limited one, potentially leaving some tariffs intact or preserving certain executive powers for future use.

Should the court rule against the Trump administration, justices will also need to address how collected tariffs might be refunded to countries, businesses, and consumers who have borne the costs.

Even if the administration loses, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has indicated that alternative legal avenues—such as the Trade Act of 1974 or the Trade Expansion Act of 1962—could be used to reimpose tariffs.

Prediction Markets Weigh In

Prediction markets have seen millions wagered on the Supreme Court’s upcoming decision.

• On prediction platforms, the probability of the court upholding Trump’s tariffs stands at 28%, suggesting a 72% likelihood of reversal. This figure has dropped from 48% in November and 36% at the end of 2025.
• Other predictions currently stand at 32% for a pro-tariff ruling.
• Another market predicts that three justices (42%) are most likely to support the tariffs, followed by five (18%) and four (16%). There is a 10% chance that none of the justices will vote in favor, and less than a 1% chance that all nine will support the tariffs.

Key Stocks and Sectors to Monitor

Jay Woods, Chief Market Strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, has identified the tariff ruling as a pivotal event for 2026. He notes that the Supreme Court’s decision could define the market’s trajectory in the first half of the year.

Woods points out that a reversal of the tariffs could create uncertainty regarding reimbursements for companies and consumers, as well as compensation for affected countries.

• Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST) has already filed a lawsuit seeking reimbursement for tariffs paid.
• Nike Inc (NYSE: NKE) has been significantly impacted by the tariffs, and a favorable ruling could lead to a rebound in its stock price.

Other companies challenging the tariffs in court include subsidiaries of Toyota Motor, Revlon, and Del Monte Fresh Produce.

Reports from industry sources highlighted that the construction and industrial sectors, including companies like Toyota and 3M Company (NYSE: MMM), have been among the hardest hit by these tariffs.

Footwear and apparel brands with significant imports from Asia, such as Nike, could benefit if the tariffs are overturned. Conversely, companies importing goods from countries subject to high tariffs may see varying impacts depending on the court’s decision.

Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ) and Deere & Co (NYSE: DE) have also reported the financial effects of tariffs to their shareholders.

A Supreme Court verdict on Friday could spark significant volatility in individual stocks and cause sector- and country-focused ETFs to fluctuate sharply.

Additional Companies to Watch

• Costco Wholesale Corp (COST): $900.48 (+2.03%)
• Deere & Co (DE): $481.35 (+1.29%)
• 3M Co (MMM): $162.91
• Nike Inc (NKE): $63.32 (+0.16%)
• Constellation Brands Inc (STZ): $144.10 (+2.57%)
• Toyota Motor Corp (TM): $213.55 (+0.10%)