NFP Outlook: Federal Reserve’s Policy Shift Faces Uncertainty, What This Means for the US Dollar and Nasdaq 100

Key Economic Data Set for Release This Friday

The first major economic indicator of 2026 is scheduled for release on Friday, January 9, at 8:30 AM ET. After a turbulent year that included a federal government shutdown and multiple interest rate reductions, the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report will serve as a crucial test of whether the Federal Reserve’s recent policy shift was well-timed or a hasty response to signs of labor market weakness.

One of the main challenges is the potential for misleading data. Lingering impacts from the government shutdown in late 2025 continue to obscure the actual pace of job creation. Furthermore, there is a possibility that employment figures for October and November could be revised downward, adding further uncertainty to the employment outlook.