a16z: Predicts that prediction markets will deeply integrate with crypto and AI by 2026, requiring a "truth consensus" mechanism to address the large number of contract adjudication issues

ChainCatcher reported that a16z crypto research advisor and Stanford University professor of political economy, Andy Hall, stated that prediction markets have now entered the mainstream. They will become larger, broader, and more intelligent through deep integration with cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence—while also presenting new challenges that builders urgently need to address.

First, more contracts will be launched this year. This means that participants will not only be able to access real-time predictive probabilities for major elections or geopolitical events, but also cover a variety of specific outcomes and complex, intertwined events. As these new contracts disclose more information and become integrated into the news ecosystem (which is already happening), they will raise important social issues: how to balance the value of such information? How to optimize design to enhance transparency, auditability, and other possibilities? Cryptographic technology is providing the foundation for this.

To cope with the surge in the number of contracts, the market needs new "truth consensus" mechanisms to resolve contract adjudication.