The impact of the 2025 cycle has kicked off earlier than expected this year.
Back in that cycle, FUD pushed risk assets below key levels, dragging prices back toward early-year lows into year-end. However, this pullback has delivered more than just a liquidity sweep that caught bears offside.
Instead, it has put real-use-case blockchains back in focus. In that sense, Ripple [XRP] fits the narrative perfectly, ripping nearly 15% in under 10 days during the early stages of the 2026 rally and firmly grabbing the spotlight.
Source: Glassnode
That said, on-chain data suggests this thesis is now being tested.
From the chart, short-term XRP HODLers (1 week–1 month) have trimmed exposure, with their supply share sliding from 5.7% to 4.9% in just seven days, mirroring XRP’s almost 13% pullback from the $2.4 high.
Put simply, STHs are taking profits, pressuring supply. The result? Roughly $400 million was flushed from Open Interest (OI), while XRP ETFs saw their first-ever outflows, with $17.72 million exiting.
In short, XRP’s rally is cooling off, confirming that its 12% pullback isn’t a random blip. That said, the move raises the classic question: Is this just a temporary shakeout of weak hands, or the start of an extended correction?
On-chain data dips, but XRPL deals could turn XRP around
A key divergence is building under XRP, hinting at underlying strength.
Looking back at the 2025 cycle, XRP closed the year down 12%, but Ripple didn’t pause. Instead, it kept moving, locking in strategic partnerships aimed at capturing a slice of the trillion-dollar payments market.
Building on that momentum, Ripple has acquired Slovexia to automate payments, with around 50,000 daily transactions projected. Put simply, XRP will now be a payment option in their gateway for these transactions.
Source: TradingView (XRP/USDT)
And it doesn’t stop there.
Amazon’s AWS is looking to partner with Ripple to integrate XRPL into its ecosystem. Consequently, XRP could become a payment option across a wide range of services, tapping into the big leagues of the tech industry.
In this context, XRP’s 15% “New Year” rally doesn’t look speculative.
Instead, with DeFi TVL up 30% in the first week of 2026, it’s an early sign that real adoption and capital inflows are driving momentum, making Ripple’s pullback feel like just a “blip” as fundamentals take center stage.
Final Thoughts
- Ripple’s short-term holders are taking profits, trimming exposure, and causing minor supply pressure.
- Strategic partnerships, along with a 30% DeFi TVL surge, signal real-world use and capital inflows, making the 12–13% pullback feel like just a blip.
