BlackRock Global Macro Director: Skeptical of Bitcoin's "Four-Year Cycle End" Theory, $65,000 Will Be the Trend Low

BlockBeats News, January 10th. Jurrien Timmer, Global Macro Director at Fidelity, stated that Bitcoin's current trajectory is more similar to the S-curve of the internet rather than a power-law curve. Many Bitcoin supporters claim that the four-year cycle has ended, and a new structural uptrend is on the horizon. I am skeptical of this, not in terms of questioning the diminishing impact of the halving cycle (with which I agree), but rather in doubting the notion that bear markets no longer occur. Currently, Bitcoin's base is at $65,000 (the previous high), while the power-law trend line indicates the base is at $45,000.

Although there is still a distance to the target price, if Bitcoin consolidates in the next year, the power-law trend line may move closer to $65,000 and could potentially become Bitcoin's make-or-break level. However, this may (or may not) only occur in the future (or in the next year).