Iran Unrest Brings Oil Supply Concerns Back Into Focus

Brent Crude Approaches $63 Amid Iran Turmoil and Venezuela Developments

Brent crude prices climbed toward $63 per barrel, buoyed by ongoing unrest in Iran and moderated expectations for Venezuela’s oil output.

Market Highlights – January 9, 2026

Protests in Iran have injected fresh momentum into what has been a surprisingly strong start to 2026 for oil markets, raising concerns about possible supply interruptions. Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s inability to attract major US oil companies to invest in Venezuela, along with Treasury Secretary Bessent’s encouragement for independent drillers to enter the country, has eased fears of a rapid surge in Venezuelan production. As a result, ICE Brent is on track to finish the week nearly $2 higher, closing in on $63 per barrel—marking its third consecutive weekly gain.

Key Global Energy and Policy Updates

• US Intercepts Russian-Flagged Tanker: The US military captured the Marinera, a Russian-flagged tanker, in the North Atlantic after a three-week chase. At the same time, US forces boarded the fully loaded M Sophia in the Caribbean, citing suspected illegal activities.
• Iraq Takes Control of Major Oil Field: Iraq has approved the nationalization of the West Qurna 2 oilfield, which produces 500,000 barrels per day. The field will now be managed by state-owned Basrah Oil, following Lukoil’s withdrawal due to US sanctions.
• Rio Tinto and Glencore Consider Merger: Mining giants Rio Tinto and Glencore have entered preliminary discussions about forming the world’s largest mining company, potentially valued at $207 billion, reviving a previously stalled merger proposal.
• Major Traders Eye Venezuelan Oil: Industry leaders Vitol and Trafigura are reportedly in talks with US officials to market Venezuelan crude, following a $2 billion agreement between the US and Caracas to sell up to 50 million barrels from PDVSA.
• Iberian Refiners Pursue Merger: Spain’s Moeve and Portugal’s Galp are negotiating to combine their downstream operations, aiming to create a leading European energy platform with a combined capacity of 690,000 barrels per day and over 3,250 retail outlets. The deal is targeted for completion by mid-2026.
• US Withdraws from Dozens of International Bodies: President Trump signed an order on January 7 to pull the US out of 66 international organizations, including the International Renewable Energy Agency and the UN’s climate change panel.
• Proposed 500% Tariffs on Russian Oil Purchasers: The White House has authorized Congress to vote on a bill that would impose 500% tariffs on countries importing Russian oil, with similar measures proposed for gas, uranium, and refined products.

Additional Global Energy Developments

• China Increases Saudi Oil Imports: Chinese refiners have reportedly ordered 48-49 million barrels of Saudi crude for February—about 1.65 million barrels per day—after Saudi Aramco reduced prices for the third month in a row.
• Brazil Suspends Amazon Basin Drilling: Brazil’s oil regulator has instructed Petrobras to halt offshore drilling in the Foz do Amazonas basin following a synthetic fluid leak in the region where the Amazon meets the Atlantic.
• US Oil Companies Target Turkish Gas: Turkey’s national oil company TPAO has signed an agreement with ExxonMobil to jointly explore gas reserves in the Black Sea and Mediterranean, building on the success of the Sakarya discovery in 2020.
• Chinese Auto Sales Plummet: China’s car market experienced its sharpest decline in nearly two years in December, with sales dropping to 2.28 million units—a 14.5% year-on-year decrease—as government trade-in incentives are phased out.
• US Aluminium Prices Surge: Following the doubling of US aluminium import tariffs to 50% in June 2025, American premiums over global benchmarks have soared, with Midwest prices now $2,100 per metric ton above the LME three-month contract, which trades around $3,100 per ton.
• Texas LNG Expansion Continues: Glenfarne, a private US developer, has begun seeking investors for its planned 4 million ton per year Texas LNG project—its second major infrastructure venture after Alaska LNG. Gunvor and Macquarie have already secured 20-year supply agreements.

By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com

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