Trump Shared Unreleased Employment Figures Ahead of Schedule on Social Media

Trump Shares Unreleased Jobs Data Ahead of Official Release

On Thursday evening, former President Donald Trump posted a chart on social media that included employment numbers from the December jobs report, which had not yet been made public.

The chart indicated that the private sector had gained 654,000 jobs "since January," a figure that matched data scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. Friday in Washington. Trump’s post appeared on Truth Social roughly 12 hours before the official publication of the report.

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) closely guards its employment data, as these figures can have a significant impact on financial markets. Despite the early disclosure, there was no noticeable surge in trading activity in the bond and stock markets, nor in Polymarket betting, between Trump’s post and the official release of the report.

A White House representative acknowledged that the early disclosure was accidental and resulted from information that had been shared in advance. The administration is now reviewing its procedures for releasing economic data.

Neither the BLS nor the Department of Labor, which oversees the agency, responded to requests for comment.

Protocols and Market Impact

Typically, the president and key economic advisors receive a briefing on the jobs report the day before its release. Federal employees are prohibited from commenting on the data until 30 minutes after it becomes public, allowing time for the public to interpret the information before the administration offers its perspective.

According to Bloomberg News, private payrolls from January to November increased by 687,000 based on data available as of Thursday. The December report, released Friday, revealed weaker-than-expected private payroll growth and downward revisions for October and November.

The report also indicated that total nonfarm payrolls, which include government jobs, fell short of forecasts, marking one of the slowest years for job growth since 2009.

Although Trump’s post did not specify the December payroll number, it may have signaled to investors that hiring at the end of the year was softer than anticipated.

This incident could further erode confidence in the impartiality of U.S. government data and raise concerns about the politicization of information that is supposed to remain neutral. Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, warned that such breaches could also increase confusion and volatility in the markets.

Expert Reactions and Previous Incidents

“We strive for a fair environment, but this undermines that goal,” Swonk commented. “Market participants may now start monitoring the president’s social media for hints about economic data before it’s officially released.”

Bharat Kumar, an employee at Futures First near New Delhi, noticed the inconsistency in Trump’s post on Thursday night. “The numbers didn’t match my calculations,” he said. “I was puzzled, trying to figure out if Bloomberg’s published data was incorrect or if there was an issue with the post.”

The graphic Trump shared referenced both the BLS and the White House Council of Economic Advisers. Kumar concluded that the post must have included unreleased figures, a suspicion confirmed when the December report was published Friday. He shared his findings on X, where his post gained significant attention.

This is not the first time Trump has deviated from established protocol. During his first term, he tweeted his anticipation for the jobs report an hour before its release, which many traders interpreted as a sign of positive numbers. Indeed, the May 2018 report exceeded expectations, and unemployment fell.

Reporting contributed by Kevin Varley, Josh Wingrove, Catarina Saraiva, Mark Niquette, and Jennifer A. Dlouhy.

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