Gold Prices Edge Higher After Mixed U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Data

FX678 News, January 10 — The US non-farm payroll data was mixed, and the market is digesting this information, resulting in gold prices stabilizing and strengthening. Bets on Fed rate cuts and lingering geopolitical risks continue to support gold demand.

On Friday (January 9), during the US session, spot gold edged higher as investors assessed the mixed US employment data. Spot gold traded around $4,490, after rebounding from the $4,400 region on Thursday.



Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that employment growth slowed in December. The US economy added 50,000 jobs, below the market expectation of 60,000 and also lower than the revised 56,000 in November. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate dropped slightly from 4.6% to 4.4%, below the expected 4.5%.

In terms of monetary policy, the weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls was offset by the lower unemployment rate, which strengthened market confidence that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at its January 27-28 meeting. However, the market still expects about two rate cuts later this year. Gold typically benefits from a low interest rate environment, as declining yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal.

Looking ahead, market focus will shift to the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's January Consumer Sentiment Index, including consumer expectations as well as short- and long-term inflation expectation data.

The market will also pay attention to speeches by Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari for new clues about the outlook for monetary policy.

After the US expanded regulation on Venezuelan oil exports, the market remains focused on rising geopolitical risks. There were previous military actions in Caracas. Former US President Donald Trump’s new controversial remarks about annexing Greenland have also unsettled market sentiment. In addition, escalating unrest in Iran and renewed tensions between Japan and China have heightened market caution, dampening risk appetite and thus supporting gold demand.

On Friday, Trump posted on TruthSocial that Venezuela is releasing political prisoners and that the US is cooperating with Caracas to rebuild its oil and gas industry. He added that a planned second round of strikes has been cancelled, but US ships will remain in place “to ensure security.” Trump also stated that he will meet with major oil company executives at the White House today, with related investments possibly reaching around $100 billion.

The market is also watching a US Supreme Court hearing later on Friday regarding the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Lower courts had previously ruled that the administration exceeded its authority in imposing comprehensive tariffs.

The market is also paying attention to news about the next Fed Chair. Reports indicate that Trump said he has "made up his mind," but has not yet discussed it. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later stated that Trump has not yet interviewed any of the four final candidates, and that an announcement may be made around two weeks later when he attends the Davos Forum.

On the data front, figures released Thursday showed that initial jobless claims rose slightly to 208,000 for the week ending January 3, slightly below the market expectation of 210,000. Challenger layoffs in December fell to 35,553, the lowest since July 2024. In addition, the US October trade deficit narrowed sharply to $29.4 billion, the smallest since June 2009 and well below the expected $58.1 billion.




(Spot gold daily chart Source: FX678)

From a technical perspective, spot gold is in a consolidation phase, stabilizing after its recent gains. The overall bias remains bullish as gold prices stay above the rising 21-day simple moving average (around $4,387).

On the downside, the $4,400–$4,380 range forms the first key support area. A break below this region could see a further move down to the 50-day simple moving average (around $4,231), opening the door for additional retracement.

On the upside, $4,500 is the immediate resistance level. Sustained breakthroughs above this level would shift focus back to the record high (around $4,549) or even higher.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 64, remaining above the midline, indicating that bullish momentum still exists. The Average Directional Index (ADX) is 22, suggesting the trend is moderate and has weakened from previous highs, pointing to a slowdown in subsequent momentum.