Analyst: Bitcoin Experienced 'Capitulation Event' in November 2025, Consolidation Phase Expected in Q1-Q2 This Year

BlockBeats News, January 10, Analyst Biraajmaan Tamuly stated that Bitcoin Long-Term Holders (LTH) experienced the most aggressive selling phase on record in 2025. Despite the selling pressure causing market turbulence, on-chain data analysis indicates that this pressure may be dissipating, perhaps outlining the next upward price cycle for BTC.

The data shows a significant movement of Bitcoin dormant for at least two years in 2025. Nearly $300 billion worth of Bitcoin, dormant for over a year, re-entered circulation. From November 15 to December 14, 2025, one of the most intense long-term holder selling periods in over five years occurred.

Tamuly explained that since 2019, sharp declines in long-term holder supply have rarely occurred in isolation. They typically occur when the Bitcoin trend is showing signs of exhaustion—whether the uptrend is nearing its end or during a structural transition period. Price weakness was evident in October, but the most intense selling occurred thereafter—the largest 30-day distribution peak of 1.14 million BTC in November 2025. This sequence indicates a "capitulation sell-off" in the market rather than an orderly profit-taking, marking a cycle reset rather than a continuation of the previous trend.

Since December, LTH supply has stopped declining, currently holding at around 13.6 million BTC, while the Bitcoin price has entered a consolidation phase. The long-term/short-term holder supply ratio provides further confirmation. Whenever this ratio drops to -0.5 or lower, Bitcoin either enters a bottoming phase or rebounds to a new high within weeks. Last December, the ratio dropped to about -0.53, followed by narrowed price fluctuations and stalled momentum, aligning with the characteristics of a cycle reset rather than trend continuation. The consolidation in the first and second quarters of this year may form a bottoming period, with any sustained rally more likely to occur thereafter, perhaps unfolding in the third quarter.