Analyst: Bitcoin experienced a "crash-style sell-off" in November 2025, and may consolidate and bottom out in Q1-Q2 this year

BlockBeats News, January 10, analyst Biraajmaan Tamuly stated that Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH) experienced the most aggressive selling phase on record in 2025. Although the scale of their sell-off once caused market turbulence, on-chain data analysis shows that this pressure may be subsiding, potentially outlining the next upward cycle for BTC prices.

Data shows that in 2025, there was a significant change in the number of Bitcoins that had been dormant on-chain for at least two years. Nearly $30 billion worth of Bitcoin, which had been dormant for over a year, re-entered circulation. From November 15 to December 14, 2025, there was one of the most intense long-term holder sell-off periods in more than five years.

Tamuly explained that since 2019, sharp declines in long-term holder supply have rarely occurred in isolation. They usually appear at stages when the Bitcoin trend is showing signs of exhaustion—whether the rally is nearing its end or the market is undergoing a structural transition. Price weakness appeared in October, but the most intense sell-off occurred afterward—in November 2025, a record 1.14 million BTC were distributed over 30 days, the largest such peak in history. This sequence indicates a "capitulation sell-off" rather than an orderly profit-taking, marking a cycle reset rather than a continuation of the previous trend.

Since December, LTH supply has stopped declining and is currently maintained at about 13.6 million BTC, while Bitcoin prices have entered a sideways range. The long-term/short-term holder supply ratio provides further evidence. Whenever this ratio drops to -0.5 or lower, Bitcoin either enters a bottoming phase or rebounds to new highs within weeks. In December last year, the ratio dropped to around -0.53, followed by narrowing price fluctuations and stalled momentum, which is consistent with the characteristics of a cycle reset rather than a trend continuation. The consolidation in the first and second quarters of this year may constitute a bottoming period, and any sustained upward movement is more likely to occur afterward, possibly unfolding in the third quarter.