US jobs end 2025 with 50 vacancies and mixed signals.

• US jobs grow less than expected.
• Unemployment falls while hiring remains weak.
• Labor data influences markets and cryptocurrencies.

The final 2025 jobs report showed the creation of 50.000 jobs in December in the United States, according to data released by the Department of Labor. This number fell short of market expectations and reinforced the perception of a gradual slowdown in employment over the past year, a theme that has been gaining traction in macroeconomic analyses followed by investors in stocks, currencies, and cryptocurrencies.

The unemployment rate fell to 4,4% in December, compared to 4,6% in November. The average projection from economists surveyed by Bloomberg indicated the creation of 70.000 jobs and unemployment at 4,5%, making the final result weaker than the consensus. Even so, the drop in unemployment helped prevent a completely negative reading of the report.

Revisions to previous months also drew attention. November's adjusted gain was 56.000 jobs, below the initially reported 64.000. October, on the other hand, showed a loss of 173.000 jobs, deepening the contraction compared to the 105.000 job drop estimated in the preliminary data. These adjustments reinforced doubts about the real strength of the labor market at the end of 2025.

Economists have described the current environment as a period of "no hiring, no firing," marked by few new job openings but also a low volume of layoffs. This situation directly affects worker confidence. A survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed that the "perceived probability" of finding a new job within three months of losing a current one reached its lowest level in the historical series in December.

It is worth noting that the monthly jobs report is still undergoing a normalization process after the delays caused by the lockdown of the previous fall, a factor that contributed to the volatility of the data throughout the second half of the year.

Private sector indicators offered some temporary relief. Job loss announcements in December registered the lowest monthly total since July 2024, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Meanwhile, private sector payrolls, as measured by ADP, showed the creation of 41.000 jobs in the month.

For the financial market, the report reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve will remain attentive to employment developments before making new interest rate decisions. Since the numbers came in below expectations, the data is now interpreted as a factor that could open the door for interest rate cuts throughout 2026, should the weakening labor market become more pronounced.

In the cryptocurrency market, the reaction was subdued: Bitcoin remained stable after the report's release, trading near US$90.820,05, up 1% in the last few hours, reflecting expectations that monetary policy will remain dependent on upcoming economic indicators.