Huatai Securities: The Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate cuts from January to May, and cut rates 1-2 times after the new chair takes office.

According to Odaily, a research report from Huatai Securities states that in December, the US added 50,000 new non-farm jobs, lower than Bloomberg's consensus expectation of 70,000, with a cumulative downward revision of 76,000 for October and November. Although the unemployment rate has declined, the significant downward revisions in the previous two months have caused the three-month average of new private sector non-farm jobs to fall to a low of 29,000, and the structure has become further "imbalanced." Looking ahead, the report maintains the view that the job market will gradually improve in the future, focusing on the "temperature difference" between economic growth and employment. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate cuts from January to May, and after the new Fed Chair takes office, there will be 1-2 rate cuts. The number of new non-farm jobs added in December was below expectations and concentrated in a few industries: the employment diffusion index declined in December compared to November. Considering that most recent initial jobless claims were better than expected, layoffs have decreased, and the leading indicator NFIB business hiring intentions continue to improve, it is still expected that the number of new non-farm jobs in the US will rebound in the future. Attention should be paid to the "temperature difference" between US economic growth and the job market. From the Fed's perspective, although employment data is weak, it has not continued to deteriorate. It is expected that the Fed will pause rate cuts at the January meeting and emphasize observing subsequent data before making decisions. Therefore, it is expected that the Fed will pause rate cuts from January to May, and after the new Fed Chair takes office, cut rates 1-2 times. (Golden Ten Data)