Why the United States and China Have Chosen Contrasting Paths in the Shift to Clean Energy

Global Energy Policy: A World Divided

Across the globe, countries are increasingly falling into two distinct groups regarding their energy strategies. On one side, many nations are embracing electrification and rapidly expanding their clean energy infrastructure. On the other, countries like the United States—the largest economy—are ramping up fossil fuel development at unprecedented rates. The outcome of this growing divide between nations prioritizing oil and gas ("petro-states") and those investing in renewables ("electro-states") will shape the future of the world’s energy landscape.

The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Energy Demand

The rise of artificial intelligence is intensifying the energy debate. As technology sectors demand ever more power, governments are being forced to reassess their energy priorities, with energy security becoming a critical issue. A recent opinion piece from Wood Mackenzie questioned which energy model will best support the needs of these emerging technologies.

International Tensions at Climate Summits

The split was evident at the United Nations COP30 climate conference in Belém, Brazil. Over 80 countries backed a proposal to phase out fossil fuels, but a coalition of oil-producing nations, especially from the Middle East, resisted. The United States notably chose not to send top officials to the event, signaling its stance on the issue.

U.S. Influence on Global Energy Policy

Despite its absence at COP30, the United States is actively shaping the global energy conversation. The Trump administration has reportedly increased efforts to pressure other countries to shift away from renewable energy initiatives and return to fossil fuel development.

The Economic Dilemma for Fossil Fuel-Dependent Nations

For many countries, maintaining a fossil fuel-based economy is appealing. Coal, oil, and gas often form the backbone of national revenues, and transitioning to clean energy can be economically challenging in the short term. For those whose economies and employment depend heavily on fossil fuels, achieving a fair and affordable transition is a complex and costly task, with uncertainty about where the necessary funding will come from.

Climate Vulnerability and Clean Energy Potential

Ironically, many of the nations most reliant on fossil fuels are also among the most vulnerable to climate change. Nigeria, for instance, earns 80–90% of its government revenue from oil exports. Yet, Africa faces severe risks from rising temperatures, while also possessing vast potential for renewable energy thanks to abundant sunlight and other resources.

Renewables: An Unstoppable Force?

Globally, it is becoming clear that renewable energy is too affordable to ignore. As a Yale Insights article highlights, decades of technological progress and a mature development ecosystem have made renewables more cost-effective, less risky, and increasingly attractive for landowners. This is especially true in developing countries like Pakistan, where solar power offers a lifeline for rural and off-grid communities.

However, as renewable energy becomes mainstream, it is also becoming more politicized, introducing new obstacles for the sector. The line between economic realities and political agendas is often blurred.

A Shifting Global Energy Order

According to a 2025 analysis from The National Interest, the global energy system is undergoing a dramatic transformation. The United States, Saudi Arabia, and Russia—three dominant fossil fuel producers—are consolidating their influence, while China is forging a different path more in line with Europe’s green ambitions. This evolving competition between hydrocarbons and renewables is set to define the world’s energy and geopolitical landscape for years to come.

By Haley Zaremba for Oilprice.com

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