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Musk: Achieving safe unsupervised autonomous driving requires 10 billion miles of training data

Musk: Achieving safe unsupervised autonomous driving requires 10 billion miles of training data

格隆汇格隆汇2026/01/11 09:55
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By:格隆汇
Glonghui January 11th|Tesla CEO Elon Musk has provided the latest estimate on the amount of training data required to achieve truly safe unsupervised FSD. He stated that, due to the "enormous long-tail complexity" of the real world, achieving this goal would require approximately 10 billion miles (about 16.093 billion kilometers) of training data. Musk made this statement in response to Paul Bassele, a former Apple and Rivian employee. Bassele had previously published an analysis on X, discussing the gap between technology demos and real-world products. In his article, he emphasized that Tesla holds a leading position in autonomous driving thanks to its data-driven approach, while also pointing out that competitors will struggle to quickly become strong contenders in FSD technology. Bassele wrote: "Some people believe that catching up with this technological challenge can be done with just simulation and limited road testing, but in my view, this is overly naive. This is not just a matter of technology demonstration, but a tough battle of scale, data, and iteration speed. Tesla is already far ahead on this track, while other companies are just getting started." In response to Bassele’s post, Musk said: "To achieve safe unsupervised autonomous driving, about 10 billion miles of training data are needed. The long-tail complexity of the real world is beyond imagination." It is worth noting that Musk previously estimated in the "Master Plan 2.0" that for autonomous driving technology to gain approval from global regulators, approximately 6 billion miles of testing mileage would be required.
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